2025-12-23 11:20:24

#以太坊行情解读 $ETH $ZEC $BCH

[Is the Federal Reserve's "Stabilizing Force" Decided? 81% Expectation of Rate Freeze, Japan's Digital Bonds Make a Breakthrough in 2026]

The global capital markets are focused on the Federal Reserve's next move. Data from Polymarket's prediction market is striking — the probability of maintaining interest rates in January next year is as high as 81%, while the expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut is only 18%. Nearly $50 million has already been wagered on this expectation game. Is this a convergence of market consensus or the calm before the storm? No one can say for sure.

What is more noteworthy is Japan's actions. On December 23, the Japanese government officially confirmed a key direction: by 2026, it aims to complete the digital securitization transformation of local debts. It sounds very official, but what does it really mean? The launch of blockchain-based digital bonds eliminates intermediaries, reducing settlement time from days to seconds, allowing investors to directly track the flow of funds.

Analysis indicates that this type of digital local government bond may carry multiple values - not only financial returns but also bind social contributions and exclusive rights. For personal financing, this is like opening a new door.

Looking at the situation on both sides: the Federal Reserve is keeping interest rates steady, while Japan is quietly reshaping its financial infrastructure. As traditional finance begins to actively embrace blockchain logic, the boundaries between crypto assets and mainstream financial markets are softening. Does this indicate that the market ecology will undergo profound changes by 2026? Capital is sensitive; it will be the first to sense these signals.

What do you think? To what extent will the Federal Reserve's "freeze" policy and the advancement of Japan's digital bonds leverage global capital flows?

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LightningWallet

· 2025-12-24 15:46

I really can't see through this move in Japan. Can digital bonds really settle instantly? Will large funds flood in at that time?

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FlashLoanLarry

· 2025-12-23 11:38

Japan's recent actions are really serious; the launch of digital bonds in 2026 is a clear signal that traditional finance is starting to take the on-chain world seriously. That said, an 81% frozen interest rate sounds stable, but it's exactly the kind of certainty that capital loves, locking in expectations to profit from the difference. The integration of blockchain logic into the traditional financial system is the real big event, not just the fluctuations in coin prices. Japan is ahead, while the Fed is still holding back, the gap is too wide. Wait, 2026 is still two years away; could this be another wave of "the wolf is coming" hype? Who is really pushing for implementation? Second-level settlements save on intermediaries, which changes the game for both institutions and retail investors, but has it really gone live yet? The Fed's frozen interest rates are essentially point shaving; if Japan successfully digitizes its bonds, the flow of capital will likely be reshuffled.

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