2026 Crypto Market Depth Outlook Report

2025-12-23 10:03:08

Abstract generation in progress

This report deeply integrates the forward-looking predictions of four authoritative institutions: Galaxy Research, Coinbase, a16z, and Grayscale. The institutions believe that 2026 will mark the inaugural year of “value industrialization” for the encryption economy. The market is undergoing a structural transformation: shifting from the retail investor-driven “Halving cycle law” to a “sustainable value rise model” led by global institutions.

Macroeconomic Landscape: The End of a Four-Year Cycle and the Beginning of the “Institutional Era”
The failure of the cycle theory: Grayscale pointed out that due to the systematic allocation of institutional funds, the improvement of compliance frameworks, and the popularity of Bitcoin spot products, the traditional “Halving driven four-year cycle” may officially declare its end in 2026. The market will shift from a retail investor-driven explosive rise to a more stable, long-term upward channel driven by institutional rebalancing.
The game of price and rhythm:

Grayscale expects Bitcoin to reach a historical high in the first half of 2026.

Galaxy predicts it may reach $250,000 by the end of 2027.

Coinbase likens the current stage to the early internet of 1996, suggesting that we are at the starting line of a long bull market.

Supply Scarcity Milestone: It is expected that the 20 millionth Bitcoin will be mined in March 2026. This transparent and certain scarcity supply mechanism further solidifies its position as “digital gold” in the face of fiat currency devaluation risks.
Clear regulation and institutional entry: from assets to infrastructure
Policy dividend period: In 2026, the “GENIUS Act” and bipartisan-supported legislation for the encryption market structure are expected to be formally implemented, establishing the legal status of encryption assets in mainstream capital markets.
ETF and Wealth Management: Currently, the proportion of wealth managed by trusts in the United States allocated to encryption assets is less than 0.5%. With due diligence completed, it is expected that by 2026, a large amount of cautious institutional capital will flow in, and the cumulative net inflow of spot cryptocurrency ETFs is expected to exceed $50 billion.
Product Diversification: More than 50 spot altcoin ETFs and various multi-asset, leveraged ETF products will appear in the market.
DAT 2.0 Model: Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) will evolve into a professional trading and procurement focused on sovereign blockchain space, where blockchain space will be regarded as a core strategic material of the digital economy, equally important as electricity and computing power.
Technical Paradigm Shift: From Protocol Value to Application Premium

In 2026, blockchain infrastructure will shift from “large and comprehensive” to “specialized” and “application-oriented.”

“Fat App” hypothesis: Galaxy predicts that the ratio of application revenue to network revenue will double by 2026. Value capture is shifting from underlying protocols to the application layer, with at least one universal L1 embedding revenue-generating applications that direct value to native tokens.
New Landscape of Public Chain Competition:

The market value of Solana's internet capital market is expected to soar to $2 billion, completing the transition from a traffic center to a value center.

High-performance matrices: Sui, Monad, MegaETH, etc. will become the preferred foundation for financial-grade applications due to their architectural advantages in AI micropayments and high-frequency trading.

RWA 2.0 Explosion: The scale of tokenized assets is expected to rise a thousand times in the coming years. By 2026, large banks and brokerages will begin to accept on-chain digital stocks and bonds on a large scale as cross-border collateral.

Four, AI Agents and encryption integration

Encryption technology will provide the necessary identity and payment infrastructure for AI agents, building an “agent economy.”

From KYC to KYA: a16z emphasizes that “Know Your Agent” will become mainstream. Using encryption signature credentials to establish a trusted identity system and collaboration protocol for AI Agents.
Automated On-Chain Settlement: The x402 standard will support high-frequency microtransactions between AI agents. Galaxy predicts that such automated payments initiated by AI will account for over 30% of the daily trading volume on mainstream Layer 2 networks (such as Base).
Decentralized AI Governance: In response to the trust crisis of centralized AI, protocols like Bittensor and Story Protocol will establish the training sovereignty and intellectual property protection of AI models through a decentralized approach.
Deepening Applications of DeFi, Privacy, and Prediction Markets
Tokenomics 2.0: DeFi protocols will completely bid farewell to the “mining coin model” and shift to a “cash flow valuation” model centered on profit sharing and buyback and burn. The total balance of the lending market is expected to exceed 90 billion dollars.
The Unity of Privacy and Compliance: Privacy solutions are no longer a black box operation, but a necessity for mainstream financial access to the blockchain. The market value of assets supported by privacy technology is expected to exceed 100 billion dollars by the end of 2026.
Normalization of prediction markets: Polymarket's weekly trading volume is expected to continue exceeding $1.5 billion. Prediction markets will introduce decentralized governance and AI oracles to address the limitations of outcome determination.
The rise of fiat-backed assets: The settlement volume of such digital payment mediums is expected to surpass that of the ACH system. By 2026, at least one of the top three card organizations worldwide will process over 10% of cross-border settlement volume through such assets.

Summary

If the early cryptocurrency market was an isolated digital island, then the cryptocurrency market in 2026 resembles a deep-water port fully integrated into the global trade network. High-performance public chains and AI agents provide the most efficient loading and unloading tools, and the regulatory system establishes recognized port rules, while institutional capital serves as the fully loaded ocean giant.

The grand era of Crypto has fully begun. Will you lead from the forefront or watch from the sidelines? Arm your investment toolbox, the countdown to the end of 2025 AICoin membership benefits has started, and embark on your professional investment journey now.

Original link:

26 Bold Predictions for Crypto in 2026: Bitcoin, DeFi, Stablecoins, and AI | Galaxy

17 things we're excited about for crypto in 2026 - a16z crypto

2026 Digital Asset Outlook: Dawn of the Institutional Era | Grayscale

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