The recent trend of SUI has fallen into an interesting stalemate. The price is tightly stuck at the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, what does this usually mean? The consolidation is nearing its end, and a directional breakout is just around the corner. The width of the Bollinger Bands has contracted significantly, which is a "deep breath" before all the signals start to move.

Specifically, there are a few key positions to watch: the support here mainly needs to focus on $1.424 (1-hour Bollinger Band lower band) and $1.361 (daily lower band), these two price levels highly overlap with the liquidation cluster area at $1.40, and there is a cumulative long liquidation risk of $8-11M below. The resistance levels are distributed at $1.452 (SMA50), $1.530 (daily Bollinger Band middle band), and $1.641 (daily SMA50).

There is a detail worth noting - the weekly OBV actually rose during the price decline, forming a divergence. This often suggests that a bottom is accumulating, with large funds quietly buying in. The unlocking of 64.19 million coins on December 1 went smoothly, and the market digested it well without causing much sell pressure. However, we should be cautious about the unlocking of 46 million coins on January 7, 2026, as it accounts for 1.2% of the current circulation, which may create supply-side pressure in the short term. There is not much pressure on staking, with an average daily subsidy of 378,000 coins in December, resulting in an increase of only 2.65 million over a month, which has a negligible impact on the overall market.

From a technical standpoint, there are currently two main trading strategies available. The first is to go long on a rebound (probability 60%): enter in the range of $1.43-$1.435, with the target rooted at the moving average of $1.452, and set the stop-loss at $1.424. To be honest, the risk-reward ratio is only 0.47, which is indeed not very ideal, so a small position should be taken.

The second option is to short with the trend (probability 70%): enter short in the moving average resistance zone of $1.44-$1.45, targeting a drop to the liquidation cluster at $1.39, with a stop loss at $1.47. The risk-reward ratio of this plan reaches 2.20, and the certainty is also higher. Which path to choose depends on your own risk preference and position management strategy.