#比特币价格 Looking at this analysis, I need to calmly pour some cold water. Bitcoin has pulled back from the peak of 80,000 in October to around 94,000 now, the 200-day moving average has turned positive, and the short-term bullish momentum has resumed – sounds great, but I have learned a lesson in practical experience over the years: attractive technicals often deceive the most.

The key issue is clearly stated in the data from glassnode — spot trading volume is declining, open interest is also decreasing, and options are hedging downward risks. What does this indicate? It indicates that although the price is rising, the real institutional buying is not strong, and market sentiment remains cautious. The story of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates has already been priced in, which is a dangerous signal. When good news is fully digested, what often follows is disappointment.

I have seen this kind of Rebound too many times - technical indicators turning bullish, retail investors starting to FOMO, but the real chips have long been quietly distributed. The 52-week high acts as a resistance level, and once the breakout fails, the speed of the decline is often faster than the rise.

The current strategy should be: if you haven't gotten on board yet, don't rush to chase the highs; if you already have a position, set a stop-loss and don't be blinded by short-term rebounds. When market sentiment is still so cautious, any upward movement is worth doubting. Living longer is more important than making quick money.