2025-12-23 07:27:15

Recently, there is an interesting contradiction in the market - the stock market has been rising close to historical highs, and the VIX has also hit a new low in several months, making it seem like risk appetite is through the roof. However, a closer examination of the data reveals that this "optimism" is actually a bit hollow.

Where is the real problem? Liquidity has not loosened at all. The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen above 3.50% again, and the 10-year yield remains high at 4.17%. There is no indication that the central bank is going to cut interest rates or release liquidity. The rise in the stock market and the low VIX are merely superficial signs driven by risk appetite, not a true monetary easing environment. In other words, it now resembles a "high-level risk-on betting phase"—everyone is betting on the Christmas rally, but the market lacks a true new driving force.

What does this mean for Bitcoin? Not too good. When the US stock market relies solely on seasonal beliefs for support and lacks a clear direction, it is difficult for cryptocurrencies to break out of the independent trend. Historical patterns show that when the US stock market fluctuates slightly upward, BTC usually struggles to rise; once the US stock market loses key support levels, BTC's pullback is often sharper than that of the stock market.

What’s more heartbreaking is the "hidden danger" of interest rates. The rise in 2-year U.S. Treasury yields indicates that market expectations for short-term policy easing are cooling, coupled with the potential uncertainty of a new Federal Reserve chair and political cycle factors, crypto assets find themselves in a passive and beaten-down situation in such an environment. High volatility, lack of drivers, and constraints from interest rates—this combination is not good news for the cryptocurrency market.

BTC-0.74%

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PerpetualLonger

· 12-23 08:01

Something's off, this logic issue is quite big... The stock market hitting new highs doesn't seem fake to me; anyway, I'm fully positioned chasing it. A low VIX is a signal to increase the position, brother. What's wrong with a 3.5% yield on 2-year U.S. Treasuries? Historically, that's not high... Is the author trying to be bearish? I like to operate in reverse. BTC's rise is weak? The last time I bought the dip, I thought the same way, and ended up making a killing, recouping 50%. Now it's at the bottom again, and this time I'm holding firm. This Christmas rally is definitely promising; bearish traders and retail investors just want to scare us. Interest rate constraints? Nonsense, the Central Bank will have to ease sooner or later. I've made up my mind, I'm going to triple my leverage; a breakout is coming, buy the dip, buy the dip.

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MercilessHalal

· 12-23 08:01

To put it bluntly, it's just a game of passing the buck, with no real liquidity support. It's a false prosperity, debts will have to be repaid sooner or later. If U.S. Treasury rates don't drop, why should the crypto world rise? This logic simply doesn't hold. Those betting on the Christmas market are just suckers; I really can't understand this wave. Once the U.S. stock market breaks down, BTC will directly slump by 50%; risk allocation is just nonsense. With short-term policy expectations cooling, the encryption side is bound to take a hit. They dare to boast without any loosening of liquidity; this market is truly insane. This pit of interest rates will have to be stepped into eventually; entering a position now is just asking for trouble. Seasonal faith? It's already 2024, and they're still playing this game; it's too naive. High-level fluctuations are the most irritating; you can't make money and are still on edge every day. Risk appetite is just like air, it can disperse at any time. The new chairman of the Fed brings enough uncertainty; the crypto world simply can't withstand it. It feels like the market is playing a psychological game, with no real support.

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ProbablyNothing

· 12-23 07:59

In plain terms, it's a false breakout; the liquidity string hasn't loosened, and US Treasury yields are still firmly stuck at high levels. Why should we believe in this rise? --- Is this the Christmas rally? It's supported by faith, and BTC is weakly following suit; once the US stock market stumbles, the crypto market will be even worse. --- The 2-year US Treasury yield is still above 3.5, without any signs of interest rate cuts. How can this be crypto-friendly? --- Risk appetite is soaring, but liquidity hasn't arrived; to put it plainly, it's just gambler's psychology... When the US stock market falters, BTC is likely to be hit even harder. --- The interest rate is the real hidden danger; the new Fed chair's vote introduces some uncertainty, and the crypto market currently has a bit of a trapped feeling. --- High-level fluctuations are the most annoying; there’s no clear direction or real driving force. Following the US stock market's lead can only yield poor results.

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