#数字资产市场洞察 BTC encountered a cold market in the fourth quarter: a turning point from expectation to disappointment.

As the end of the year approaches, many people are eagerly anticipating the legendary year-end market. But what happened? $BTC not only failed to deliver surprises but instead put on the most sluggish performance since the bear market of 2018. The price seems to be shackled; every time it attempts to surge upward, it gets slammed down. The rebounds come quickly but leave just as fast, which really makes one feel powerless to complain.

**The sense of exhaustion in the market is a bit frightening**

What is the most intuitive feeling? The trading heat has clearly cooled down. Trading volume is shrinking, momentum indicators are declining, and even those usually most active speculators are starting to play dead. Just imagine, whenever the price tries to break through a new high, it encounters a large amount of selling pressure. What does this indicate? It indicates that the bullish forces that could stir things up are basically exhausted, shifting from active offense to passive defense, and the previously accumulated bullish sentiment has been mostly consumed.

**Institutions and retail investors are both observing**

Interestingly, both large holders and retail investors are now caught in hesitation. Institutional funds are not expanding their positions but rather reducing their risk exposure, which can be seen from the changes in position sizes. As for retail investors? Their activity has decreased significantly compared to the beginning of the year, with the incremental funds that could originally push prices higher clearly insufficient. With both major participants lacking the desire to attack, prices can only fluctuate repeatedly at low levels, either slowly descending or swaying within a narrow range.

**Technical pressure is accumulating**

From the chart, $BTC has repeatedly lost key support levels, and important moving averages have not been reclaimed, further undermining market confidence. The logic for short-term traders is very simple now - sell on any rebound, watch the declines, and the number of people trying to catch the bottom is decreasing.

That said, the lackluster performance in the fourth quarter does not imply that the long-term value of $BTC is in question. Historical experience tells us that a period of weakness is usually a process of resetting expectations and accumulating strength for the next round of ascent. The main theme in the market right now is "waiting"—waiting for a clear macro signal or waiting for a convincing technical breakthrough. Until then, caution is the best strategy.