A record $23.6 billion in options is set to expire. Can Bitcoin hold the $85,000 level?

According to Gate market data, Bitcoin is currently quoted at approximately $87,800, a price point that is becoming the front line of intense competition between bulls and bears. About $23 billion in options contracts will expire on December 26, accounting for more than half of the total open interest at the leading options exchange Deribit.

Among them, around $1.4 billion in put options have accumulated near the $85,000 strike price, forming a strong market gravitational point.

01 Market Status: Wandering and Testing

According to the latest data on December 23, 2025, the price of Bitcoin on Gate is displayed as $87,723.4, a decrease of 1.02% in the past 24 hours.

This price performance reflects the typical hovering state of the market before significant events. In intraday trading, Bitcoin briefly tested the psychological level of 90,000 USD, climbing from around 88,000 USD during the Asian session to above 90,000 USD during the European session.

However, this upward pattern is not solid. The market repeatedly shows strength during non-U.S. trading hours, but once New York liquidity takes over the market, it faces selling pressure.

The heat in the derivatives market continues to rise, with the total amount of outstanding Bitcoin futures contracts nearing $60 billion. This phenomenon of increasing open interest alongside rising prices typically indicates that new leverage is entering the market, rather than just short positions being closed.

02 Options Expiration: Understanding the “Magnetic Effect”

The options contracts with a scale of approximately $23 billion expiring on December 26 account for about 1.3% of Bitcoin's current market value, which is enough to trigger significant price volatility during the expiration week.

The “magnetic effect” before the expiration of options is a classic phenomenon in the derivatives market. When market makers need to adjust their hedging positions, their trading behavior will drive the spot price towards the strike price where a large number of options are concentrated.

The current market structure shows that there is approximately 1.4 billion dollars in open interest of put options stacked around the $85,000 strike price. This scale is enough to have a significant impact on the spot market.

Historical experience indicates that the volatility of Bitcoin prices can increase by 50%-100% before and after large-scale options expiration. This volatility may break upward or downward, with the specific direction depending on the comparison of bullish and bearish forces.

03 Market Sentiment: Panic and Divergence

The market sentiment indicators show that we are currently in a state of extreme fear. The Fear and Greed Index continues to hover at a low of 22, while the Altcoin Season Index has fallen to the lowest range of 16.

This sentiment reflects the structural divergence within the market. A large number of call options are concentrated around the strike price of $100,000 to $120,000, indicating that some market participants remain optimistic about a rebound by the end of the year.

At the same time, put options are accumulating heavily around $85,000, reflecting a strong demand for downside protection.

The flow of funds also confirms the cautious attitude of the market. The assets under management of the Bitcoin ETF in the United States have shrunk from $119.4 billion to $112.6 billion, and the Ethereum ETF has also decreased by $1.8 billion.

This outflow of funds undermines the key pillar of market liquidity, making the price of Bitcoin more susceptible to the impact of large orders.

04 Technical Structure: Comparison of Bull and Bear Strength

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently in a tight trading range. Recently, the daily trading range has typically been between $88,000 and $90,000.

This price range is significant: resistance begins at $90,000, and then strengthens in the $92,000-$95,000 area, which focuses on short-term trend pressure and the previous consolidation zone.

Key support level is around $88,000, which is the area where buyers stepped in after the decline in November, and it has also been tested repeatedly in December. A deeper support level is located in the low area of $80,000, regarded as the key bottom by the end of December.

The momentum indicator shows that the Relative Strength Index has returned to the neutral zone, rather than remaining in the overbought state. The MACD is nearing a bullish crossover on the daily timeframe, and if it can hold above key levels, it may support prices to continue rising.

05 Macroeconomic Background and Capital Flow

The macro environment provides some support for Bitcoin. The market's expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have risen, boosting overall risk appetite and driving stocks, gold, and cryptocurrencies to rise in tandem.

However, Bitcoin's response to traditional market signals has been unusual. Although the US November CPI data showed that inflation was lower than expected, which should theoretically enhance rate cut expectations and benefit risk assets, Bitcoin plummeted from $89,000 to $84,450.

This abnormal reaction stems from the market's doubts about the reliability of CPI data. Due to the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, the Bureau of Labor Statistics canceled the October inflation report and made “imputed” estimates for a large number of prices in the November data.

From the perspective of capital flow, the market supply and demand fundamentals remain positive. Corporate finance departments and funds purchase about 1,755 Bitcoins daily, while the daily mining supply after the halving is only around 900 coins.

If this supply shortage persists, it will provide structural support for prices.

Future Outlook

The capital flow data shows that there has been a continuous net outflow from Bitcoin ETFs in the United States recently. As of the week ending December 19, the net outflow reached $479.1 million, bringing the total outflow in December to $298.2 million.

Market liquidity has further shrunk due to the year-end effect, with many fund managers reducing trading activity or even taking early vacations in the last two weeks of December.

The current trading price of Bitcoin is still about 29% lower than the historical high of $126,000 set in October 2025, and the market is still digesting the 17% drop on November 17.