#CryptoMarketWatch

In the last month, the BTC trend looks like a wide sideways movement with a slight decrease in momentum:
the price has hardly changed, volatility has been noticeable, the structure is closer to a correction in the range than to a strong trend.

1. Over the month, BTC has increased by approximately 1.56%, moving within a range of about $84,000–$94,600.

2. The price is currently below the monthly moving averages and just below the daily pivot, the MACD is still negative, and the RSI is around 45.

3. The key balance zone for the month is $87,900–$89,300, a breakout upwards will open the path to $92,000–$95,000, and a breakout downwards to $84,000–$85,000.

analysis for the month
How has BTC moved in the last 30 days

I rely on the daily candles for the last 30 days for [Bitcoin (BTC)]
1. About 1 month ago, BTC was around $86,798.77.

2. The current daily price is around **88,152.67 $**, which gives **+1.56 %** for the month.

3. The range of the last 30 days for swings:

1. Minimum (swing low)around **83,862.25 $**.

2. Maximum (swing high) around **94,601.57 $**.

That is, the market went through almost 10–11 thousand dollars in range, but by the end of the month returned close to the starting values, which is typical for the consolidation phase after strong trending movements.

**What it means:** The month has passed under the sign of volatile sideways movement. In the short term, there is no clear bullish or bearish dominance, but a struggle is taking place within a wide range.


Moving averages and overall trend

On the daily timeframe:

1. Simple Moving Averages (SMA)
1. SMA 7d: 87,572.77 $ ( below the current price ).

2. SMA 30d: 89,494.37 $ ( above the current price ).

3. SMA 200d: 107,880.33 $ ( significantly above the current price ).

2. Exponential Moving Averages (EMA):**

1. EMA 7d:88 157.44 $.

2. EMA 30d: 90,478.57 $.

3. EMA 200d:102 496.65 $.

Interpretation:

1. In the short term, ( BTC is holding near its moving averages, indicating a local balance after recent volatility.

2. The price is below the 30-day SMA and EMA, which supports the scenario of a **corrective or distributional sideways movement**, rather than a fresh impulsive uptrend.

3. A strong divergence of the 200-day moving averages at the top reflects that there was previously a very powerful bullish cycle, and the current month looks more like a pause or structural correction within the larger trend.

What this means is that on a monthly horizon, the structure is closer to a correction in a sideways trend. To resume a confident upward trend, the price must consolidate above 89,500–90,500 and return the price above the 30-day moving averages.


Impulse: MACD and RSI

1. **MACD )daily(:**

1. **MACD line:** −1,454.8.

2. **Signal line:** −1 680.3.

3. **Histogram:** +225.49.

This means that the MACD is still in the negative zone )the medium-term momentum is weakened(, but the histogram is already positive. This indicates that the downward momentum is fading, entering a "deceleration of the decline" phase and a possible formation of a range bottom.

2. RSI )daily(:
1. RSI 7:49.6.

2. RSI 14: 45.42.

3. RSI 21: 43.68.

All values below 50, but far from being oversold. This is a moderately bearish, but not panic mode, typical of a sideways market with a slight downward slope.

**What it means:** the momentum for BTC over the month is more likely weakening than turning into a strong trend. This is convenient for accumulation and inconvenient for aggressive short-term trend strategies that prefer clear movements rather than whipsaws.


Important levels: Fibonacci and pivot

On the daily timeframe, based on the last monthly range:

1. Swing range:
1. Swing high: $94,601.57.

2. Swing low: 83 862.25 $.

2. Fibonacci Levels )retracement(:
1. 23,6 %: 92 067,09 $.

2. 38,2 %: 90 499,15 $.

3. 50,0 %:89 231,91 $.

4. 61,8 %:87 964,67 $.

5. 78,6 %: 86 160,46 $.

3. Main daily pivot:
1. Pivot point:88 966.67 $.

2. The current price is about $88,152.67, which is just below the pivot.

Practical output by levels:

1. The current zone around 88–89 thousand falls right into the "balance zone" between 50% and 61.8% Fibo)89 232 and 87,965 $(. This is often a key decision area where the market converges before a new movement.

2. Above **90,500 $** begins the area of strengthening the bullish scenario and a possible return to 92-95 thousand. ) 23.6% Fibonacci and swing high (.

3. Below 86,100–86,500 $, the risk of a deeper correction to 84–85 thousand and testing the lower part of the range increases.

What does it mean: over the month, the market has formed a wide box range with a center around 88–89 thousand. While BTC is hovering around this zone, the baseline scenario for the next month looks like a continuation of trading within the range until a clear breakout above 90.5–92 thousand or below 86 thousand.
Scenarios for next month regarding the technique

Not as a recommendation, but as a set of conditional scenarios:

1. **Moderately bullish scenario )breakout above the range(:**

1. The price is held above 87.9 thousand )61.8% Fibonacci ( and returns above 89.5–90.5 thousand.

2. RSI is steadily rising above 50, MACD is entering positive territory.

3. In this case, a retest of 92–95 thousand is quite realistic and, with a strong impulse, a move towards the Fibonacci extensions of 97.5–101 thousand.

2. **Continuation of the sideways movement:**

1. The price remains in the range of 86–92 thousand, the RSI is fluctuating between 40 and 55.

2. Volume without obvious spikes, MACD is "sawing" around zero.

3. This is the most "banal" scenario, but often this is how the market digests past growth before the next big move.

3. **Correction scenario )downward deepening(:**

1. The price settles below 86 thousand, RSI drops to the range of 35–40.

2. The MACD is turning down again with an increasing negative histogram.

3. Then the areas of interest in the technique shift to the region of 82–84 thousand, where the monthly minimum was and possible larger limit orders.

**What it means:** the technique does not show a strong trend over the month, leaving the door open both upwards and downwards. Key "thresholds" for changing the scenario are approximately in the zones of 90.5–92 thousand above and 86 thousand below.
TOTAL RECEIVED:
Over the past month, BTC has gone through a large volatile range, but in the end, it has only gained about 1.5%, which looks like a consolidation phase after a strong cycle. Moving averages, MACD, and RSI indicate weakened momentum and trading within the range of 84–95k. The key decision-making zone is now centered around 88–89k, and a breakout beyond 90.5–92k or a drop below 86k with volume, according to the technical analysis, will set the direction for the next major move.

Confidence: Medium, as the analysis is based on daily indicators and BTC prices over the last 30 days, while future scenarios remain probabilistic.