The potential after ETH depth adjustment: The 2026 story behind on-chain data

[Coin World] This wave of market performance has broken many people's expectations. The current state of the altcoin season index is somewhat bleak—only 12 alts across the network have outperformed Bitcoin. However, interestingly, the derivation market for Ether has shown similar structural characteristics.

By closely examining the deleveraging process on the ETH side, it becomes clear. The open contracts have fallen from a historic high of 70 billion USD by more than 50%, directly evaporating 35 billion USD in positions. In contrast, the pullback in Bitcoin is only 38%. This indicates that ETH is under greater pressure on the derivation level.

But there is a detail worth paying attention to—on-chain fundamentals are actually quite stable. The total locked value has maintained around 70 billion dollars, and the total collateral value has not dropped below 36 million since mid-November, remaining quite solid. This state of “a sharp drop on the surface, but the fundamentals haven't collapsed” precisely reflects that ETH has undergone a thorough risk release.

The depth of this adjustment may actually lay the groundwork for a rebound later. In the fourth quarter of 2024, ETH may be relatively weak, but by the first quarter of 2026, the ETH/BTC trading pair might surprise the market. The characteristics of the current bottom are already quite clear.