What is happening to the BTC year-end market amid the convergence of volatility and the decline in futures holdings?

The dollar index has retreated, coupled with a rebound in tech stocks, giving Bitcoin some breathing room recently. Currently, the 30-day implied volatility of BTC stabilizes around 45%, and the data looks interesting—this level suggests that as the year-end approaches, market trading enthusiasm may cool down. In contrast, Ethereum's volatility is even more subdued, with the 30-day implied volatility sliding down to 70%, marking a new low since October 9. It seems that the volatility expectations for the entire market are converging.

What is even more telling is the data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The open interest in Bitcoin futures has just fallen below 120,000 contracts, marking the first time since the beginning of 2024. The enthusiasm from institutions seems to be waning, and the reduction in positions somewhat reflects a decrease in participation.