Probable prediction market launch: Can PancakeSwap and YZi Labs innovate on-chain gaming?

A new project jointly incubated by the two pillars of the BNB Chain ecosystem—PancakeSwap, which has an average daily volume exceeding 1 billion USD, and YZi Labs led by Zhao Changpeng (CZ)—is attempting to reshape the landscape of on-chain prediction markets.

Probable is positioned as an on-chain, zero-fee prediction market platform that allows users to predict cryptocurrency prices, global events, sports events, and more.

01 Project Launch: The Birth of Probable and Its Core Vision

On December 18, 2025, the BNB Chain ecosystem welcomes a new member: the prediction market platform Probable. This is not a project starting from scratch, as it is backed by two heavyweight “mentors”—the decentralized exchange giant PancakeSwap and the family office YZi Labs, which has transitioned from Binance Labs.

Probable is defined as a user-centered on-chain prediction market platform. Its core vision is to break the high barriers and complex operations of traditional prediction markets, providing a transparent, efficient, and easy-to-participate experience through blockchain technology.

The project is exclusively deployed on the BNB Chain, clearly taking advantage of the network's low-cost and high-performance infrastructure, which is crucial for prediction scenarios that require fast settlement and frequent trading.

02 The Dual Giants: The Ecological Empowerment of PancakeSwap and YZi Labs

The birth of Probable is inseparable from the deep involvement of two major supporters.

PancakeSwap, as the flagship decentralized exchange (DEX) on the BNB Chain, boasts amazing ecological resources. By 2025, its total value locked (TVL) will exceed 2 billion USD, processing over 425,000 transactions daily, with more than 169,000 daily active users.

PancakeSwap's participation goes far beyond merely “announcing support.” It is positioning itself not just as a DEX but as a builder of the next generation of on-chain markets, and incubating Probable is a key step in its deepening expansion into on-chain primitive technology and entering the high-participation financial application space.

The other supporter, YZi Labs, brings top-notch incubation experience and strategic vision. It was formerly the venture capital arm of Binance, Binance Labs, which was restructured into Zhao Changpeng (CZ)'s family office in early 2025, with investment scope extending from Web3 to cutting-edge fields such as artificial intelligence and biotechnology.

Ella Zhang, the head of YZi Labs, has previously led the incubation of now well-known projects such as Polygon and Injective Protocol. CZ himself also personally retweeted related posts and expressed support after the launch of Probable, stating that “multiple prediction markets run on BNB Chain,” which undoubtedly brought significant market attention to the project.

03 Mechanism Analysis: How to Achieve Zero Fees and Full On-Chain?

Probable directly addresses several pain points of the current prediction market in its mechanism design, proposing attractive solutions.

First and foremost, the most noteworthy aspect is its zero-fee launch strategy. During the initial phase of the platform's launch, users will not need to pay any platform fees for making predictions. This greatly lowers the participation threshold and trial-and-error costs for users, allowing more people to experience the product with small amounts of funds and explore different prediction strategies.

To ensure the fairness and immutability of the prediction results, Probable uses UMA's Optimistic Oracle as its event adjudication tool. This is a dispute-based verification mechanism: the oracle first provides a result and sets a challenge period; during this time, anyone who believes the result is incorrect can stake tokens to initiate a challenge, ultimately ensuring that the correct result is adopted through economic incentives.

At the user operation level, Probable is dedicated to simplifying the process. The platform allows users to recharge with any token, and the system will automatically convert it to USDT on the BNB Chain, which can then be used to participate in the prediction market. Users do not need to manually exchange, cross-chain, or switch networks, achieving a seamless experience.

04 Market Blueprint: From Cryptocurrency to Global Events

Probable aims to build a diversified prediction market matrix that covers far more than just single cryptocurrency price predictions.

According to the plan, the markets on the platform will be mainly divided into several categories: trends of crypto assets, global macro events (such as elections, economic data releases), mainstream sports events, and some distinctive regional markets.

This emphasis on regional and niche markets is one of Probable's differentiation strategies. By integrating opportunities that are difficult to find on traditional prediction platforms or centralized sports betting, Probable hopes to attract local community participation, combining predictions with their own cultural focal points.

05 Ecological Positioning and Dynamic Associations on Gate

For users of the Gate exchange and observers of the crypto ecosystem, the launch of Probable has multiple significances.

It marks that the DeFi ecosystem of BNB Chain is expanding towards more complex and interactive financial applications. As the core of the ecosystem, PancakeSwap's incubation actions serve as a strong barometer. As pointed out in an analysis on Gate Square, this move means that PancakeSwap is clearly transcending traditional DEX activities and entering the realm of high-participation financial applications.

At Gate.io, assets related to the PancakeSwap ecosystem have always been an active trading category. Traders often share their market analysis on CAKE (the platform token of PancakeSwap) and BNB in the Gate Plaza.

06 Challenges and Prospects: The Future Path of Prediction Markets

Despite a strong background and innovative design, the challenges faced by Probable remain clear.

First is market competition. On-chain prediction markets are not a new concept; they require cultivating user habits and competing with existing centralized and decentralized alternatives. Secondly, the regulatory environment is always the Damocles sword hanging over us. U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren recently sent a letter requesting an investigation into the potential risks of decentralized exchanges like PancakeSwap, which adds a layer of uncertainty to the entire ecosystem.

However, the opportunities are equally immense. Prediction markets are essentially efficient tools for capitalizing on information and opinions. A truly decentralized, transparent, and user-friendly platform has the potential to attract users who distrust or cannot access traditional options.

The future development of Probable will depend on its ability to rapidly iterate products, attract sufficient liquidity and users to form network effects, and find a sustainable operating path within the complex global regulatory framework.

Future Outlook

On the BNB Chain, the Probable prediction market, which it helped incubate, has just opened its trading interface. Users are trying to predict the future prices of cryptocurrencies, the outcome of a football match far away on another continent, and even the direction of an election in a certain region using their USDT. These small bets and the vast ecological support together outline the blurred contours of the next possible explosion point in on-chain financial applications.