Using history as a reference, what position is Bitcoin in during the current cycle?

Today, let's mainly talk about Bitcoin. I hold a certain proportion of stocks related to Bitcoin. What is the current price level, and what is the expected trend for the next year? We need to analyze this.
1. The cyclicality of Bitcoin is very obvious. From the past few instances, it is basically a 4-year cycle, which is very stable! As for the reasons behind the cycle, there are various opinions, but the core influencing factor lies in the Bitcoin halving event. The Bitcoin halving is a preset, automatically triggered event in the Bitcoin network, and its core mechanism aims to control the issuance speed of Bitcoin, ensuring that its total supply remains constant at 21 million coins, thus establishing the foundation for its scarcity value.
The event is driven by the halving of the block reward for miners who mine new Bitcoins approximately every 210,000 new blocks (about every four years).
Each occurrence of a halving represents a reduction in the earnings obtained by miners under the same investment, causing some unprofitable miners to exit, which will delay the production of Bitcoin.
It can be understood that as the mining costs of gold increase and the available gold in the market decreases, the price goes up.
Therefore, shortly after the halving occurs, the price of Bitcoin will experience a surge. Once the price rises to a level where there is still profit even with the halved mining rewards, more people will participate in mining, leading to an increase in supply, and then the price will fluctuate.
Of course, since the production of Bitcoin is virtual and does not have a mapping in the physical world, its fluctuations and cycles do not completely follow the balance of supply and demand.
There are also factors such as liquidity, social consensus, speculative frenzy, market sentiment, and so on.
But the final result shows that starting from the halving cycle, the price peaks after 12-18 months, then begins to correct; it takes another 12-18 months for the price to hit the bottom, and then it starts to rebound, continuing until the start of the new halving.
2. Price fluctuations during the period
The last halving took place in April 2024, so let's take a look at what position we are in within the cycle now.
The table above summarizes the recent trends in Bitcoin prices over the last four cycles, and it can be seen that:
The price reaches its peak 12-18 months after the halving, with the peak price at least doubling compared to the price at the time of halving.
The pullback after the peak is astonishing, reaching up to 80%.
It generally takes 13 months from the high point to the low point of the cyclical rebound.
Let's take a look back at the performance of this round of the cycle:
1) The 18th month after the halving in April 2024 (October 2025) saw a peak, with Bitcoin approaching $130,000;
2) After reaching the high point, it retraced to a low of 80,000 dollars, with a retracement of 36%;
Low point lasted only 1 month
According to the trends of the previous cycles, the current $80,000 does not seem to be the true low point, as the retracement is only 36%, far from the scale of the retracements in previous cycles.
Additionally, the cycle is too short, or even if 80,000 dollars is the low point, it is not yet the turning point for the Bitcoin price rebound. The market will need at least 6-12 months to stabilize and recover.
Of course, due to the significant improvements in Bitcoin-related policies and social environment over the past two years, many voices have expressed that this time might be different. If it is indeed different, what trends can we expect in the market moving forward?
3. Future Price Trends and Investment Strategies We will analyze from three perspectives: optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic.
Pessimistic: 80,000 is not the price bottom, and the decline must be at least close to 60%-70%, meaning the price will fall below 50,000 dollars; moreover, from a timing perspective, it will take until the second half of 2026 to stabilize and start rising.
Medium view: 80,000 is the price bottom, but the price will fluctuate between 80,000 and 100,000 until the second half of 2026 when it starts to enter an upward channel.
Optimistic: 80,000 is the price bottom, and the correction period has significantly shortened, with an increase expected in the first half of 2026.
Different people have different judgments about which of the three is more preferable. Since the future is unpredictable, we can only adjust our positions based on the risks and returns we can accept in different situations of the three.
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