The U.S. government, which just ended a record 43-day shutdown, is facing another "shutdown" crisis! Trump has suddenly released news that there may be another shutdown at the end of January, leaving just over a month until the temporary budget expiration date of January 30.

The suspension in November was actually ended by a temporary funding bill, but the core contradiction has not been resolved at all—Democrats want to extend the subsidies for the Affordable Care Act, otherwise the health insurance premiums for 22 million Americans could skyrocket by more than double; however, the Republicans are adamantly insisting on controlling spending, and neither side is willing to compromise. To make matters worse, after the last compromise, the Democrats were criticized by voters for "betrayal," so the pressure to concede again this time is particularly high, while the Republicans still lack 60 votes to advance the bill, making it very difficult to break the negotiation deadlock.

The US economy is already on shaky ground: GDP growth is only 1.4%, inflation is at 3.1% coupled with a high unemployment rate of 4.6%, showing signs of stagflation. If it really comes to a shutdown, the consequences would be dire – historically, a 35-day shutdown resulted in a loss of 11 billion dollars, of which 3 billion can never be recovered. Last time, it led to the paralysis of 40 airports and cargo piling up at ports with no one to manage it.

This matter also has a significant impact on us: the US dollar index has fallen to its largest drop in 9 years, and the government shutdown will cause more volatility in the US stock and bond markets, which will also transmit to the A-shares and Hong Kong stocks; those engaged in cross-border trade need to be cautious, as the last shutdown directly stalled the approval of import and export licenses, and this time the China-US trade process is likely to be affected as well. More critically for the crypto space, after the previous shutdown, the crypto market rebounded by 10%-15%, but this time the uncertainty has escalated, and funds may first flee to safe assets, while some are waiting to buy high-risk assets at a low point.

Ultimately, this is a reflection of the dysfunction in American governance, where both parties treat the livelihood and economy as bargaining chips in political games. Do you think they will compromise at the last moment? Will the shutdown trigger a global financial turmoil? Should the crypto circle hedge against risks or make arrangements?

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