Christmas Eve: The suspense of the Fed Chair, key economic data, and the stock market's early closure game.

2025-12-21 02:48:12

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[Block Rhythm] Next week during the Christmas period, the market rhythm is a bit off. The US stock market will close early on Wednesday and will be completely shut down on Thursday, which means that trading days will be significantly reduced. But the real highlight is not the holiday, but the Fed chairman nomination from Trump.

The latest polls show that National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is in the lead with a nomination probability of about 54%, a significant margin ahead. Former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh follows closely with a probability of about 21%. Fed Governor Christopher Waller ranks third with about 14%. If Hassett ultimately takes the position, his policy style will directly impact subsequent interest rate expectations, which could have a considerable impact on the liquidity of the cryptocurrency market.

From the data perspective, there are several key economic indicators to watch next week:

On Tuesday, the actual GDP annualized quarterly rate, personal consumption expenditure quarterly rate, and core PCE price index for the third quarter of the United States will be announced—these three data points can clearly reflect the economic temperature of the United States. On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada's meeting minutes and the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. will be released. On Thursday, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will deliver an important speech, and the unemployment rate for Japan in November will also be published.

Exchange Reminder: The Hong Kong Stock Exchange will have a half-day session on Wednesday, and the New York Stock Exchange will close early at 02:00 Beijing time on the 25th. The US stock market will be completely closed on Christmas Day. For traders engaged in cross-market arbitrage or holding related assets, the decrease in liquidity is a factor that needs to be planned in advance.

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SmartMoneyWallet

· 12-23 21:27

The 54% probability for Hasset isn't that stable; the capital game behind it is quite complicated. Retail investors thinking the polls are a done deal are truly naive.

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DancingCandles

· 12-21 06:12

Can Hasset really make it? The crypto world is going to be played for suckers... Wait, can we still trade on Christmas Day? Aren't we supposed to be at a standstill? If liquidity collapses, this wave of falls will be endless. Let's wait for the GDP data to come out, saying anything now is useless. Tomorrow we're looking at the PCE, if it blows up, we might as well forget about the end of the year. Trump's move is just opening a mystery box for the global economy. If Hasset takes office, how will the interest rate go? Can anyone predict it? A dump on Christmas Eve, how competitive is that? Pushing heavy data during liquidity exhaustion, are they trying to dump it? Waller should be fine, why is the probability so low...

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SighingCashier

· 12-21 03:17

Is Hassett's ascension probability 54% so high? It feels like the crypto world is about to stir again. --- We really need to keep an eye on the GDP data that day, as I feel this wave of economic data will determine the pace going forward. --- With the U.S. stock market's holiday trading days shrinking, the liquidity issue is quite significant, and there will definitely be big fluctuations. --- To be honest, if Hassett goes up, will the interest rate policy be more aggressive... that's the key, right? --- Just waiting to see how Trump chooses, if Hassett is leading at 54%, it's basically a sure thing. --- We also need to watch the Fed chair nomination on Christmas Eve, this script is quite spectacular. --- Kevin Walsh is only at 21%, it seems Hassett is nailed down. --- Liquidity shock in the coin market? Just hearing this term makes it clear that we need to prepare for risk management again. --- The combination of GDP and PCE on Tuesday is likely to directly determine the trend for the next month. --- Taking an early holiday is secondary, the real focus is on this Fed chair candidate.

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NotAFinancialAdvice

· 12-21 03:04

Hasset is directly going to da moon, a 54% probability... is the liquidity in the crypto world going to evaporate? --- The Christmas holiday has shrunk, really ridiculous, I want to see how Hasset will manage it --- Next week, when these data come out, we'll know when the Fed chairman nomination will be decided, just wait --- Interest rate expectations are going to change again, is this wave of market going to be doomed... --- Kevins are competing hard, it's interesting that Hasset stands alone --- GDP data is the real bomb, the rest is just noise --- The US stock market is closing early just to pave the way for the Fed chairman nomination? Incredible --- Is the 54% reliable, which polling company is this from? --- The crypto market this time has to look at the Fed chairman's face to eat, it's heart-wrenching --- Liquidity risk is here, hold coins or hold steady? It's hard to decide

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PerennialLeek

· 12-21 03:03

If Hasett takes office, the liquidity will really change, and the crypto world will be in for another round of harvesting. --- The Christmas holiday is on, but the Fed chairman's game has just begun. Surprised? --- 54% chance of Hasett, is that a sure thing? It feels like the polls are not very reliable. --- Those three data points on Tuesday need to be monitored closely; if something is off, the coin price could directly To da moon or fall through. --- If it's a holiday, then let it be a holiday; why complicate things so much? It really makes me worry that the market won't stay calm, right? --- If Hasett really becomes the chairman, will the interest rate policy be more aggressive? How will BTC move then? --- I just want to know if this wave of market can last until the New Year; the liquidity during the Christmas period is too poor. --- Kevin Walsh's 21% has been put to sleep, it feels like there's no hope. --- Rather than guessing the Fed chairman, it's better to directly look at on-chain data; polls always seem to go the opposite way. --- Before the GDP data comes out, I’ll first reduce the order size; what’s the point?

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StillBuyingTheDip

· 12-21 02:54

Hassett is going to cool down in the coin market... I bet five bucks on this liquidity tightening.

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