Fidelity Macro Director: Bitcoin halving cycle has completed, 2026 may usher in a "year of market closure"

【BlockBeats】Fidelity’s Global Macro Research Head recently shared a thought-provoking view on social media: although he remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, this round of market movement may be approaching a cycle top.

From a cyclical perspective, Bitcoin has experienced 145 months of continuous growth, breaking through the $125,000 level in October this year. This high point aligns closely with the historical halving cycle pattern—both fitting the expected time window and staying within the anticipated price range. According to past patterns, Bitcoin’s correction cycle typically takes about a year to digest, so 2026 might be the so-called “year of market rest.” During this process, support levels are likely to seek stability between $65,000 and $75,000.

Interestingly, the analyst also highlighted the performance of gold during the same period—an entirely different scene. Gold’s performance in 2025 has far exceeded expectations, with an increase of nearly 65% so far, clearly outperforming the growth of global currency supplies. In recent pullbacks, gold has demonstrated typical strong characteristics—holding steady at high levels and not breaking down. All these point to a sustained bull market. In the short term, both asset classes seem unlikely to experience significant mean reversion.