Tomorrow, Japan may make a big move, and many people are speculating on how the A-shares will perform. The key question is—will the impact from the Federal Reserve be greater, or will the measures taken by the Bank of Japan have a stronger shock?

I tend to believe that the influence of the Federal Reserve is more significant. Looking at historical data makes this clear: on September 18, October 30, and December 11 last year, when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, the A-shares each peaked at 10:30 AM, then entered a 4-5 day consolidation phase before starting a new rally. This pattern is quite obvious.

Conversely, when negative news hits (such as tomorrow’s expectations of a Japanese rate hike), the usual pattern is a sharp decline followed by a rebound. Therefore, it’s very likely that tomorrow’s A-shares will experience a bottoming out and reversal, followed by a substantial surge, which could scare many people.

From a technical perspective, the current pattern is worth noting: firstly, a double bottom structure has already appeared; secondly, after each continuous decline, as long as a medium-sized positive candle appears and the subsequent price does not fall below it, the market generally enters one of two modes—either a sideways consolidation for two or three days followed by a large upward move, or a direct continuous rally.

Considering all these factors, I remain cautiously optimistic about the future market. Changes in global liquidity and exchange rate fluctuations do indeed impact the entire asset pricing system, but the technical support levels are in place, at least giving us reasons to expect a rebound.