#大户持仓动态 The sound of Japan raising interest rates is getting closer, and the market's reaction over the past few days has been quite interesting.

To be honest, the direct impact of Japan's rate hikes on BTC may not be that exaggerated in the long term. Bitcoin's size in the global financial landscape is still too small to truly resonate with sovereign monetary policies.

But there's a recent detail worth noting — the search volume for "Japan interest rate hike" on search engines has skyrocketed to a near ten-year high. Even the attention for the several rate hikes in 2024 has been overshadowed.

What does this indicate? Market sentiment is already very tense. Investors are almost unanimously focused on this, and a panic atmosphere is evident.

From a psychological perspective, when everyone is holding their breath in the same direction, it often means that expectations have already been largely priced in.

Looking at historical data, after Japan's first three rate hikes, the market generally entered a short-term correction phase. Although other macro variables were involved during those periods, the overall trend was still relatively weak.

The current market consensus is very clear — Japan's rate hike is almost unavoidable, with a probability close to 100%, only waiting for the official announcement.

So the real uncertainty isn't whether they will raise rates or not, but how the market will perform once the rate hike is officially announced. When everyone is waiting for "bad news," the bad news has often already been priced in.