Recently, there has been quite a stir in the market. A top on-chain player holds nearly $700 million in long positions, with an unrealized loss of over $73 million, including more than $64 million in Ethereum. This is not a normal market correction but a clear signal that the long side is being heavily squeezed.

Looking at the data makes it obvious. This player's Bitcoin position was opened at 91,506, and now it's stuck around 86,800, with an unrealized loss of nearly 5,000 points. Even a fund of this size being tightly trapped indicates that the strength of the shorts far exceeds what we see on the K-line. During a downtrend, being quick may not be beneficial—those who try to catch falling knives often end up getting cut.

From a technical perspective, the situation is equally grim. On the hourly chart, consecutive bearish candles are pushing down, with the price stuck at 86,799, making it difficult to break through both above and below. The MACD indicator's two lines have formed a death cross below the zero axis, which explains in simple terms: the downtrend is not over yet.

There are several possible directions moving forward. Either the price attempts to test the 90,000 resistance level, or it continues downward, first testing the critical support at 86,800, or even heading straight to 84,000 to seek lower support. At this point, many are eager to jump in, wondering if it's time to buy the dip. But two things need to be clear.

First, do not try to guess the bottom in a downtrend. After a drop of 500 or 1,000 points, do you think it's the end? The bottom is formed by the actual market movements, not by our guesses.

Second, learn to "observe" and "wait" within the trend. True opportunities often appear in the most inconspicuous places. The key now is not rushing to get in but waiting for clearer signals. Those with unstable mindsets tend to pay the most tuition during such moments.