The divergence of monetary policies among the US, UK, and EU central banks intensifies, with liquidity in the crypto market and the US dollar's trend becoming focal points

【BlockBeats】Tonight, the US will release the November CPI data, with market expectations of a year-over-year increase of about 3.1% and core CPI around 3.0%. However, it should be noted that this data collection period has been disrupted by the government shutdown and holidays, resulting in a noticeably shortened and concentrated cycle, raising questions about the completeness and accuracy of the data. Coupled with ongoing tariff pressures, commodity prices may continue to push higher, so a cautious attitude should be maintained when interpreting this set of data.

On the same evening, the Bank of England is very likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the rate down to 3.75%. Recent inflation has fallen quite quickly, and both the economy and employment are weakening, providing the rationale for the central bank governor to further cut rates. The market has already priced in this rate cut with over a 90% probability, but it is generally believed that the UK’s room for further rate cuts is limited, and no major moves are expected in the near future.

The situation in Europe is different. The European Central Bank is most likely to hold steady, as the Eurozone economy has performed better than expected, and inflation remains near the target level. Market attention has shifted from “whether to cut rates” to “has the era of easing ended,” with some even contemplating the possibility of medium- to long-term rate hikes. However, the threshold for changing strategies remains quite high at the moment.

In this context, the divergence in global central bank strategies is becoming more apparent—US data is ambiguous, the UK is cutting rates, and Europe is leaning towards neutrality or even hawkishness. For the crypto market, short-term volatility is more driven by macro expectations and liquidity pricing differences rather than any single data point. The key factors to watch are the dollar’s movements and risk asset sentiment shifts.