#美国证券交易委员会推进数字资产监管框架创新 My outlook for the market remains cautious. Unlike some analysts' optimistic views, I believe that any rebound during the bear market phase is easily absorbed, and the 80,000 level is unlikely to serve as a solid support. At least in the first half of next year, I don't have the confidence to go long for bottom fishing because the moving averages have already broken down, and short-term trading might be the way to survive.

The reasoning behind this judgment is as follows: First, look at the Bitcoin monthly chart, where a death cross signal is present. What reason do I have to expect a big bull run afterward? The fast and slow lines need to return above the zero axis.

Second, macro factors are also suppressing the market. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are both hovering at high levels, and a correction is inevitable. Can Bitcoin have an independent rally? That's unlikely. Are there expectations of rate cuts next year? No. The only options on the table are rate hikes and tightening. In this environment, why would the market strengthen?

Next, look at the on-chain ecosystem. In this round, I haven't seen institutional collapses or exchange issues, which is different from the last cycle. Before the last bull market crash, there were a series of collapses like the head explosion, Three Arrows Capital, and a major exchange, and later many trading platforms exited the market one after another.

Finally, compare the percentage decline. From 126,000 down to 80,000 is a 36% drop. Looking back at the previous cycle, from 69,000 to 44,000 was also about 36%, but then the bottom continued to fall to 15,800, a 63% decline. This reference may not necessarily indicate anything, but at least it leaves some room for imagination.