Fed Chair Candidate Changes: Wosh Surpasses Hasset, Market Probability Forecasts Rapidly Reversing

【BlockBeats】The battle for the next Federal Reserve Chair suddenly takes a turn.

According to prediction market data, the likelihood of former Fed Governor Kevin Wash’s nomination has surged significantly over the past week. On Polymarket, his probability of being nominated by Trump rose from 7% to 48%, while the previously leading Kevin Hasset’s probability fell from a peak of 85% to 42%. The same trend is observed on Kalshi — Wash’s chances increased from 10% to 52%, and Hasset’s declined from 81% to 39%.

This reversal happened quite quickly. Just last Friday, when asked if Wash was leading, Trump responded affirmatively: “Yes, I think he is, I think both Kevins are very good.” He also emphasized, “There are also other excellent candidates.” JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon previously publicly supported Wash, saying he would make a “great Federal Reserve Chair.”

But the reversal stems from a subtle dilemma. Hasset was initially viewed favorably because of his close relationship with Trump. However, according to CNBC citing sources, this “closeness” has now become a negative factor — senior decision-makers have questioned his “too close ties to the president.” This pressure might explain why Hasset’s candidate interview was canceled in early December and later hurriedly rescheduled (Wash’s interview was completed last week).

In plain terms, being too close to power can easily become a political risk.