Federal Reserve Chair suspense reversal, two candidate polls make a big comeback

【BlockBeats】The Fed Chair candidate situation has taken an unexpected turn. The widely favored Kevin Hasset’s popularity suddenly declined, while support for another candidate, Kevin Waugh, surged rapidly.

Interestingly, Hasset was initially considered a frontrunner due to his close ties with Trump, but now concerns have arisen that he is “too close to the President.” This 180-degree shift in attitude led to the candidate’s interview being canceled at the beginning of the month and then hastily rescheduled.

Trump initially told reporters that he had a locked-in candidate, but later, in an interview with the media, he changed his statement, saying both Kevins are final candidates. This statement directly impacted the prediction markets for crypto assets. According to data from the Kalshi platform: Hasset’s probability of winning dropped from over 80% at the start of the month to 51%, while Waugh’s shot up from 11% to 44%.

Interestingly, JPMorgan CEO expressed admiration for both candidates at a public event, but his wording revealed a greater interest in Waugh, who previously served as a Federal Reserve governor. Currently, the market is mainly driven by support for Waugh, rather than negative sentiment towards Hasset.

Behind this personnel suspense lies the uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s policy direction—and this uncertainty often directly affects the market performance of risk assets.