Fed Chair Candidate Reversal: Hassett's Odds Plummet, Wosh Surges Ahead

【BlockBeats】The suspense surrounding the Federal Reserve Chair candidate continues to shift. In mid-month, the widely favored Haskett suddenly found himself embroiled in controversy—top officials close to Trump’s decision-making circle began to question him, with a rather ironic reason: it’s precisely because of his close ties to Trump.

This creates an interesting contradiction: initially, people supported Haskett because of his close relationship with Trump; now, this advantage has become a disadvantage, raising concerns. The candidate’s interview was canceled as a result, then rescheduled later.

The turning point came during a recent interview with Trump. He previously hinted to reporters that a candidate had been chosen, but last week, in an interview with The Wall Street Journal, he suddenly changed his tone, saying that both former Fed Governor Waller and Haskett were finalists. Once this statement was made, the market immediately reacted—Haskett’s chances on prediction platforms started to plummet.

The numerical changes are quite straightforward. In early December, Haskett’s probability of winning on the Kalshi platform exceeded 80%, but now it has fallen to 51%; in contrast, Waller’s probability surged from 11% directly to 44%. This isn’t a criticism of Haskett lowering his chances; rather, it’s more of a rallying behind Waller. Even JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, while publicly praising both candidates, subtly indicated a tilt toward Waller—who was once a Fed Governor.

Trump made a diplomatic comment: “Both Kevins are excellent.” But the market has already cast its vote with data.