Focus on economic data after the FOMC: large investors' selling pressure eases, BTC flows to exchanges hit a new low since 2018

【BlockBeats】The FOMC meeting has just concluded, and market attention is now focused on US economic data — which will be the true stress test for liquidity next year. Retail sales, unemployment benefits, CPI, PCE — these data releases are coming in rapid succession, and each report could reshape interest rate expectations.

Analysts point out that traders have stopped speculating on last week’s rate cut news. The current game is: using upcoming economic data to validate or overturn the Federal Reserve’s decisions. Inflation data is particularly critical. If the data exceeds expectations, the “hawkish rate cut” narrative will reignite; conversely, if the data is soft, risk assets might rally again before the end of the year.

Even more interesting are the on-chain movements. Based on large inflows into exchanges, the transfer of single large wallets moving over 1 BTC has sharply declined — hitting the lowest level since 2018. The annual average flow hovers around 6,500 BTC, with weekly averages even dropping to 5,200 BTC.

What does this indicate? The willingness of major BTC holders to sell is clearly decreasing. Coupled with the entire ecosystem expanding and dispersing funds, the previously concentrated holdings on centralized exchanges are now scattered everywhere. Internal selling pressure is indeed easing — even though prices haven’t performed ideally, the selling pressure from big players is waning. This is a positive signal for a potential rebound.