#以太坊行情技术解读 【Alert】Ethereum 4-hour chart shows 16.5 extreme oversold: Can 3025 hold as the dividing line

Recently, I noticed a startling signal—Ethereum's 4-hour RSI dropped to 16.5. What does this number mean? Market sentiment is on the brink of collapse. Currently, the price is stuck at the 3025 line, with both bulls and bears sharpening their swords here.

Will there be a strong rebound next, or will it break through the bottom directly? Let's analyze.

The current situation is a bit complex:
· Daily chart still maintains an upward trend
· The 4-hour chart is plunging aggressively
· Two forces clash hard within the 3025-3150 range
· Technical signals are weak (C grade), but risk level is very high
· Facing resistance at 3150 above and holding the critical 3025 line below

Now, the market needs to make a choice, and we should prepare response plans in advance.

Three strategies, choose based on situation:

Scenario A｜Rebound rally (contrarian operation)
Trigger condition: RSI is in extreme oversold, price stabilizes around 3050-3060
Entry point: 3050-3060 zone
Stop loss: Exit if it falls below 3019
Target: First look at 3150, then at 3220

Scenario B｜Follow the downtrend (trend-following operation)
Trigger condition: 4-hour candle closes below 3025
Rebound short entry: Rebound sell around 3015-3005
Stop loss: Stop if price returns above 3065
Target: First aim at 2910, then target 2820

Scenario C｜Breakout attack (strong breakout)
Trigger condition: 1-hour candle closes strongly above 3150
Pullback entry: Buy on pullback at 3160-3170
Stop loss: Exit if it drops below 3110
Target: First aim at 3265, then at 3340

Position sizing:

For rebound (Scenario A), contrarian trading, keep it light—only 1-2% of total capital, and act quickly in and out.

For shorting or breakout (Scenarios B and C), trend-following strategies, can be slightly more aggressive—2-3%, allowing the market to fully play out.

Regardless of approach, the maximum loss for a single trade should not exceed 2% of total capital; this red line must not be touched.

Current judgment:

Ethereum is now in a phase of "testing support repeatedly within a downtrend." My advice is to prioritize Scenario B—try shorting first. The straightforward reason: the 4-hour trend is downward, and following the trend increases the win rate.

If you insist on betting on a rebound (Scenario A), it must be with a small position, and once stop-loss is triggered, close all quickly—don’t try to turn losses into profits.

$ETH The current situation is indeed a bit fierce, but for disciplined traders, these three plans cover all possible directions. The key is to prepare thoroughly in advance and avoid panic when the time comes.