#美联储降息 The short-term impact and subsequent rhythm of BTC during the Japanese rate hike cycle

From the perspective of capital flow and market dynamics, Japan's interest rate hike will exert short-term emotional pressure on risk assets. Bitcoin may experience a wave of shakeout-like volatility:

First, it will dip to the 86,000–87,000 range, completing a round of long liquidation. During this process, there will be "false breakouts" that reinforce bearish sentiment. Then, the price will quickly rebound above 90,000, even pushing toward the resistance levels of 100,000 and 106,000—this is actually a typical short squeeze behavior. When short positions in the market are overly concentrated, a rapid price increase will trigger a large number of stop-loss orders, which in turn accelerates the upward momentum.

Looking ahead, $BTC may enter a wide-range oscillation between 78,000 and 118,000, for several reasons:

First, the structure of capital is changing. Earlier, the bull market was mainly driven by "production cuts + retail investor influx." Now, institutional funds and sovereign wealth funds are starting to enter, and their approach is different—they prefer "positioning within ranges" rather than continuous unilateral upward pushes.

Second, market sentiment needs to be rebalanced. When prices rise to high levels that most people dare not short, profit-taking will occur, and some funds may even reverse to short, creating a dilemma of oscillation between highs and lows. The logic of $ETH is similar.

In simple terms, this rate hike shock is essentially a shakeout opportunity. But after the shakeout, the market structure changes, shifting from a single-sided bull rhythm to a range-bound oscillation. Institutional funds are large and prefer steady allocations, which means there won't be any extreme unilateral trends in the future.