The market is now疯狂押注 (crazy betting) that the Bank of Japan will start raising interest rates in December, with the probability soaring to 80%, and reaching as high as 90% in January. This is not just a routine interest rate adjustment, but more like igniting a fuse—the global ¥19 trillion yen carry trade is about to be fully unleashed.

For global traders, this news triggers many unpleasant memories. Remember Christmas 2022? The Bank of Japan also dropped a "bomb" during its December meeting—suddenly announcing an adjustment to its yield curve control policy, raising the cap on the 10-year government bond yield from 0.25% directly to 0.5%. That time, the global markets immediately exploded, and all kinds of assets were thrown into chaos.

The current situation ahead feels quite familiar. If interest rate hikes actually begin in December, a large-scale deconstruction of the yen carry trade could follow. What will happen then? No one can say for sure, but based on past experience, the chain reaction often exceeds expectations.