Bank of Japan's December rate hike probability soars to 98%? What do on-chain prediction markets say

Question

【BlockBeats】The Bank of Japan's interest rate decision has once again become the market's focal point. According to real-time data from on-chain prediction platforms, there is a clear answer to whether the central bank will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in December — the current probability is as high as 98%, with only a 2% chance of maintaining the status quo.This figure comes from the most active prediction platform, which aggregates expectations from investors worldwide. From the data, the market's perception of the central bank's policy intentions is quite consistent.According to the official schedule, the Bank of Japan is set to announce this interest rate decision on December 19. This means the market has a few more days to wait, but based on the enthusiasm on prediction platforms, the expectation of a rate hike has already been largely priced in. For those paying attention to yen fluctuations and related assets, this data point is worth noting.

ApeWithAPlan · Accepted Answer

A 98% probability is really outrageous; it feels like the prediction market was scared stiff, haha.

GweiTooHigh · Answer

98% really is a bit outrageous, is this what they call "market consensus"? It feels like the risk of a crash is pretty high.

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On-chain predictions... I’ve made money and lost money on them, anyway I don’t fully trust them.

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If the yen skyrockets, it’s game over. Brothers holding positions, are you ready?

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It’s another wait until the 19th. The crypto circle is probably going to be dominated by yen news these days.

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Only 2% still want a reversal? Unless central bank officials are brainless.

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High popularity of prediction platforms = really going to hike interest rates? I can’t accept this logic for now.

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The yen interest rate hike—how does it affect stablecoins and derivatives markets? Has anyone analyzed this?

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98%, sounds like a trap. The time for a reverse operation has come.

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There’s still a gap between on-chain data and reality. Don’t be fooled, everyone.

NullWhisperer · Answer

98% on a prediction market tho... ngl that feels theoretically exploitable. like, where's the actual arbitrage if everyone's this certain? interesting edge case for how these platforms price consensus.

UncleLiquidation · Answer

There's a 98% chance this thing... I bet I was wrong about how much I could earn, haha

BlockDetective · Answer

98%？That's an outrageous probability; the market just loves to hype itself up like this.

Wait, could this be the prelude to another collective misjudgment...

On-chain prediction platforms are often the most accurate contrarian indicators.

If the yen suddenly surges this time, us guessers will definitely take the fall.

fren.eth · Answer

98% probability? How many people are betting on this? It feels as stable as mining.

RebaseVictim · Answer

98% chance? Feels like the prediction market is a double-edged sword; since everything is priced so rigidly, it should be a signal to go against the trend.