Those who have been watching the market these days should have felt it—Bitcoin repeatedly struggling at the $90,000 level, with increasingly narrower swings.

As of midday, BTC is quoted at $90,165.48, with a daily decrease of only 0.24%. It touched a high of $90,484 and a low of $90,165, basically hovering within this range. Market trading volume has significantly shrunk. What is everyone waiting for? The answer is next week's Bank of Japan meeting.

**The BOJ's move is crucial**

On December 18-19, the Bank of Japan will hold a meeting. According to economists' forecasts, there is over a 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike, raising interest rates from 0.5% to 0.75%. This may sound small, but to the global financial markets, it’s a signal—the long-standing ultra-loose monetary policy in Japan may truly be coming to an end.

Once the rate hike is implemented, yen carry trades will need to be unwound. Simply put: many people previously borrowed yen (low interest) to invest in high-risk assets (such as Bitcoin, US stocks), but now borrowing costs are rising, and they have to repay their loans. This will trigger a chain reaction—selling high-risk assets and repaying USD. Global liquidity will tighten noticeably, and all risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, will come under pressure.

That’s why Bitcoin is so "quiet" now. It’s not that no one is optimistic; it’s that everyone is waiting for this sword to fall.

**Institutional entry has changed the game**

Kathy Wood of ARK Invest recently offered an interesting perspective. She said that after the influx of institutional funds, Bitcoin is no longer the same "Bitcoin" it was before.

In the past, Bitcoin’s volatility was fierce—70% to 90% drops in a bear market were not uncommon. But now, with institutional buying and market-making, the price has a sort of "cushion." Volatility has significantly decreased, which may be good for new retail investors (less risk), but for those who enjoy profiting from volatility, the excitement has really diminished.

Another key change is that Bitcoin’s correlation with US stocks is strengthening. This means it is gradually shifting from "digital gold" (a safe-haven asset) to a "high-risk appetite asset" (following stock market risk appetite). Once the stock market crashes sharply, Bitcoin will find it hard to be immune.

**Current situation**

The market has fallen into a typical "event-driven" waiting period. Trading is sluggish, and prices are stuck around $90,000. Everyone is guessing how hawkish the BOJ’s stance will be next week and how much liquidity the USD will tighten. Macroeconomic liquidity pressures combined with micro-level institutional waves are jointly shaping the current market rhythm.

Simply put: to see the direction, we still need to wait for clear signals from the Bank of Japan.