Tonight, the Bank of Japan may announce a rate hike. Will the crypto market experience another rollercoaster?

Last year, Bitcoin plummeted from $65,000 straight down to $50,000, a nearly $15,000 decline. The shock was substantial at the time. But this time, the situation seems to be different.

**The Market Has Fully Priced In**

Earlier, Japan's government bond yield curve was on an upward trend throughout the year, and market expectations for a rate hike had already been gradually priced in. This is less likely to trigger emotional sell-offs like a sudden event. Additionally, speculators' net long yen positions have already accumulated to a high level, with limited motivation for further closing, meaning large-scale stop-loss orders may not appear as densely as expected.

**Macroeconomic Environment Is Quietly Turning**

More interestingly, the Federal Reserve just signaled liquidity support this week, and market interest rates have fallen to a three-year low. Global liquidity conditions are shifting from tightening to easing. This change provides a cushion for crypto assets—although a rate hike in Japan will have a marginal impact, the easing of global liquidity might offset some of the shocks.

**Investor Sentiment Is Shifting**

A thought-provoking question: if the market reaction to this rate hike is relatively muted, does that mean macro policies are gradually losing influence over the crypto market? Perhaps investors' focus has shifted from macro concerns to sector rotation and ecosystem narratives at a micro level.

Whether Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other mainstream cryptocurrencies can hold steady tonight depends mainly on global capital flows. Based on current signals, the impact of this rate hike might not be as severe as the last one.