Next week's Bitcoin market performance will ultimately depend on actual fund flow data rather than subjective predictions.

Let's first look at institutional movements. Over the past 20 days, ETF net inflows and outflows have remained within a narrow range of 100-200 million USD. The previously aggressive buying institutions' enthusiasm for BTC has clearly diminished, and their attitude toward the current market is quite indifferent. Frankly speaking, institutions have long sensed the signals of a bear market. Currently, they are mainly in a defensive stance, and the era of large-scale positioning seems to be over.

What else can the order book tell us? The massive sell walls accumulated around 94,500 in recent days indicate significant resistance. The ceiling for this rebound is likely around 94,500.

On a daily chart perspective, BTC has been consolidating between 80,000 and 94,500 for a full 22 days. Trading volume has been gradually decreasing, and price action is diverging from volume. Two attempts to rebound to 94,500 have been repelled, and the third attempt failed to break through. This technical pattern generally signals that a larger downward move is imminent.

The four-hour chart shows even more interesting signs. The bullish volume is clearly waning, and candlestick patterns frequently form tops. In essence, this indicates a liquidity crunch in the market, with declining trading participation and a temporary stalemate between buyers and sellers. However, once an adverse factor appears, price volatility could spike sharply.

Next Friday, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision. If a hike is announced, it is highly likely that global financial markets will experience turbulence, and both US stocks and BTC could be dragged down.

Overall, the situation is quite delicate. Institutional involvement has diminished, sell walls are active on the order book, bullish volume is decreasing, and technical indicators show fatigue. Coupled with potential policy-related negative news, market sentiment remains fragile under the bear market backdrop. A downside break could accelerate the sell-off.

Therefore, early next week, BTC is highly likely to turn downward, with a significant possibility of retesting the 80,000 level. Whether this could trigger a deeper mid-term decline, even touching 71,000, will depend on the specific behavior during the retest, and further judgment will be necessary at that time.