The recent market trend has indeed been a bit uncomfortable. It’s not going up, not coming down, and the entire market feels like it’s stuck, with both bulls and bears feeling uncertain.

Actually, after careful analysis, the problem boils down to a few key areas. The Federal Reserve is still pulling in different directions, and whether they will cut interest rates in January remains uncertain. Meanwhile, the market is also starting to speculate about the possibility of the Bank of Japan raising rates at the end of the month. When these two major events overlap, everyone falls into a kind of collective anxiety.

You’ll see all kinds of voices, with the most exaggerated saying, "If Japan really raises rates, the crypto market will be doomed." This kind of statement sounds alarming, but think about it calmly: although Japan’s economy isn’t small, its individual policy adjustments are unlikely to unilaterally change the global capital flow. Sometimes, the market just loves to create problems for itself, amplifying small events into doomsday predictions.

On the other hand, when global traders are watching the same date—for example, December 19th—waiting for the “event to unfold,” the market has actually been digesting this information in advance. It’s also possible that nothing happens on the event day, and the real volatility only arrives at an inconspicuous moment afterward. This narrow oscillation pattern now indicates that institutional funds are also holding back; no one wants to be the first to make a move.

So, what should we do now?

My advice is: better to stay still than to act recklessly. Instead of betting on the direction of some news, it’s better to reduce your position size or even take a break for a few days. Focus on developing a plan—how you will follow through when the price breaks upward, and where your risk management bottom line is when it drops downward. Thinking these through is much more reliable than sticking to the candlestick chart every day.

Quiet periods often breed intense volatility. Instead of slowly wearing down your capital in this oscillation, it’s better to recharge your energy and wait for that moment to arrive.