#以太坊行情技术解读 ⚠️ Will this move by the Bank of Japan become the fuse for the crypto market?

December 19th is a significant date for global financial markets. The Bank of Japan might raise interest rates to 0.75% on this day, reaching a level not seen since 1995. It may seem like a small adjustment, but its impact on the cryptocurrency market could be far greater than expected.

Let's review the historical record: In July last year, Japan's first rate hike caused $ETH to plunge from $3400 to $2112, a nearly 40% drop. In January this year, another rate hike caused ETH to fall from $3444 to $2080. Currently, ETH hovers around $3444, and the similarity to past events is making some investors nervous.

Where is the core problem? Yen arbitrage trading.

For decades, the Japanese yen has been almost synonymous with free capital. Hedge funds, large institutions, and even retail investors worldwide are playing the same game: borrowing yen, buying US stocks, and purchasing cryptocurrencies to profit from exchange rate differences and asset gains. How large is this pool of money? No one can say for sure, but it’s definitely an astronomical figure. Once Japan raises interest rates, these zero-cost cheap funds will need to be repaid. At that point, global capital will withdraw en masse—selling US stocks, liquidating crypto holdings, and unwinding leveraged positions. As high-risk assets, Bitcoin and Ethereum could be the first to be hit.

But there’s no need to be overly pessimistic. There are several differences this time compared to previous instances:

**First, the market is already psychologically prepared.** Rumors of rate hikes have been circulating for months, unlike the previous two times when the market was caught off guard. Prices may have already partially priced in this expectation.

**Second, some leverage has already been deleveraged.** Compared to previous highs, open interest in futures markets has decreased by about 40%. While risk cannot be eliminated entirely, the potential for margin calls and sharp declines might be more moderate.

**Third, the Fed’s expectations to cut rates are underlying support.** The market widely anticipates that the Federal Reserve will begin a rate-cutting cycle next year. This could provide a buffer for US stocks and crypto markets—short-term impacts from Japan’s rate hike, but medium-term support from Fed rate cuts.

How exactly should you respond? A simple rule: staying alive is the most important thing.

**For futures traders:** Check your leverage ratio immediately. If it’s above 3x, you need to reduce it. Keep enough margin—don’t get liquidated with just a 5% decline. Mental preparedness is also key—no matter how good the opportunity, you need to survive to seize it.

**For spot holders:** Don’t blindly buy the dip. Set tiered stop-loss levels for yourself. The two critical support levels for $BTC are $85,000 and $80,000; if these break, reassess the situation below $80,000. The deeper the fall, the clearer the bottom shape, and the better the opportunity to buy.

**If you really want to bottom fish:** Wait until the rate hike dust settles. If the market panics and breaks below BTC $82,000, consider entering gradually. But do it slowly, in stages—don’t try to buy everything at once. Even if you enter a week late, it’s not a big deal; you’re missing out on time, not profit.

During macro storms, cash and low leverage are your armor. In volatile times, besides tracking mainstream coins, you can also pay attention to trending sectors supported by strong communities (such as hot topics and concepts recently discussed). Sometimes, these can show resilience and offer unique opportunities.

Finally, I leave you with this question: Do you think this rate hike is the end of the decline, or just the beginning of a deeper crisis? Are your positions and leverage ready?