The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, the UK follows suit, while Japan takes the opposite approach and prepares to hike—these three of the world's largest economies' central banks suddenly playing "unsynchronized" games, and doubts are everywhere in the market: Is this a conflict? Will it lead to an outright eruption?

In fact, this is not simply confrontation, but a true reflection of the complete misalignment of the global economic cycle.

**United States: From Fighting Inflation to Protecting Growth**

Remember the Fed raising interest rates one after another a couple of years ago? It was to contain out-of-control inflation. Now, it's different. Although inflation remains above the 2% target, it has clearly declined from its peak. More importantly, the labor market is cooling—unemployment is rising, and job growth is slowing.

The Fed’s current goal is very clear: achieve a "soft landing." That is, gradually lowering interest rates from the current high levels without pushing the economy into recession. This is a defensive stance, not an offensive one.

**United Kingdom: An Open Economy Forced to Follow**

The UK situation is a bit more complex. Its inflation and wage growth are more stubborn than in the US, so the central bank's actions are later and more cautious. But there is a constraint: as a global financial center, the UK cannot afford to see the pound weaken against the dollar. If the UK maintains high interest rates while the US cuts rates, capital will keep flowing to the US, and the pound will be suppressed, which would be disastrous for London's financial hub.

Therefore, the Bank of England chooses to follow the rate cuts but at a slower, more cautious pace than the Fed. It’s a reluctant choice.

**Japan: The True Turning Point**

And Japan’s rate hike? That’s the climax of this drama.

The key to understanding this is: Japan is not raising rates because its economy is overheating, but because of a deeper transformation. The decades-long nightmare of deflation has finally ended. This year, Japan’s spring wage negotiations saw salary increases of over 5%, an unprecedented figure in Japanese history. Wages are rising, and prices are modestly increasing, creating a benign cycle.

More importantly, the long-standing negative interest rate policy has been eroding financial institutions’ profits and destroying the yen’s purchasing power. The Bank of Japan needs to "normalize" monetary policy—raising from -0.1% to 0.1% may seem small, but for Japan, it is a historic breakthrough.

What does this mean? The last "zero interest rate fortress" in the world is retreating. The foundation of capital pricing is changing.

**Three Central Banks, Three Stories**

On the surface, it looks like conflict, but in reality, it reflects the true divergence of the global economy: the US is preventing recession, the UK is protecting its exchange rate, Japan is saying goodbye to deflation. Each country is solving its own problems, resulting in a global policy misalignment.

The impact on the market? Much more complex than "ignore and explode." Interest rate environments are changing, capital flows are adjusting, and exchange rates are fluctuating. Risks and opportunities appear simultaneously, requiring investors to rethink asset allocation and risk management. This is a new set of rules.