Chip prices are soaring, and this time, the wait-and-see crowd has truly stepped into a trap.

According to the latest industry data, DRAM memory prices are set to rise dramatically over the next few quarters. Contract prices in Q4 are expected to increase by 45-50% quarter-over-quarter, and all memory products, including HBM, are projected to increase by 50-55%. By the first quarter of 2026, this upward trend will continue to impact the entire consumer electronics market.

The most immediate victims? Smartphones and laptops. Memory costs are accounting for an increasing share of their bill of materials. Even Apple, a highly profitable company, will need to reconsider how to price their products. It’s rumored that Apple might consider cutting the discounts on older models, which is quite a blow.

For Android brands targeting the mid-to-low-end market, the situation is even tougher. Memory was originally their main selling point and the largest component of BOM costs. Now, with prices rising, they face the choice of raising prices, downgrading specifications, or absorbing the costs themselves. PC manufacturers like Lenovo and Dell have already started planning price hikes of around 15-20%, which could take effect soon.

Laptops are even more complicated. Especially high-end ultrabooks where memory is directly soldered onto the motherboard, making downgrades impossible. These products could become the earliest and most affected segment in the price increase wave. In the short term, the general laptop market can rely on existing inventory, but by Q2 2026, a wave of price adjustments is inevitable.

The most painful part? Configuration downgrades. Manufacturers are now forced to lower specifications. High-end smartphones may slow down their release of 16GB models; 12GB configurations might disappear from mid-range phones, reverting to 8GB. Entry-level phones will be even worse, possibly dropping to 4GB. Laptops, due to system and processor limitations, cannot significantly reduce memory, which actually becomes a relative advantage.

TrendForce’s forecast is also quite pessimistic: by 2026, global laptop shipments are expected to decline by 2.4% year-over-year, reversing the previous growth of 1.7%. With Q3 revenues at $41.4 billion, this memory price surge is a major event, prompting adjustments across the entire industry chain.

So the question now is: should you upgrade your device sooner, or wait and see what unfolds? This hardware cost crisis shows no signs of improving in the short term.