There is an angle worth considering—BTC's current movement may not be just random fluctuations, but rather a relatively formed large-cycle trajectory.

Many people like to focus on daily and weekly K-line charts for short-term judgments, but if we zoom out further and view it within the structural evolution of the entire cryptocurrency system, price is actually just a surface phenomenon. What truly determines the direction are factors such as how the capital structure changes, how the financial attributes deepen, and how human civilization's demands evolve.

Roughly speaking, this cycle can be divided into four consecutive stages.

**Stage 1: Rebound from the high point**

Starting from around 97k and moving downward, targeting near 74k. At first glance, it appears to be a decline, but fundamentally, it is a "overheated pullback." When all good news has been digested in advance, market sentiment is highly aligned, and the gains begin to lose efficiency, the market must adjust to accomplish three things—cool down, turnover, and reset expectations. This process usually does not drop straight to the bottom in one go but completes through repeated oscillations. The time window is approximately 2 to 6 months.

**Stage 2: Secondary ascent**

Starting again from around 74k, aiming for the 107k region. This is a test of confidence. The previous correction has washed out extreme optimism, and the current rally is supported by more solid fundamentals and structural backing. Capital will be more rational, and participants more determined. The duration of this stage may range from 3 to 9 months.

**Stage 3: Deep correction**

Falling from 107k back to 50k. This is the most psychologically testing part of this cycle. Many will exit here because of the large decline and long duration (possibly 6 to 18 months), enough to wear down most retail investors’ patience. But from a structural perspective, this is not the end but a major cleansing—sweeping out uncommitted funds, high-position chasers, and even some leveraged positions.

**Stage 4: Final rally**

Starting from 50k, targeting 150k. This phase is where the true value realization of the entire cycle occurs. After the repeated tempering of the previous three stages, the market structure has been reshaped, and the cost distribution and psychological expectations of holders have been recalibrated. Institutions, ecosystem participants, and even policy factors may form stronger support at this stage. The time frame could be 9 to 24 months.

**About the time frame**

These time estimates are not fixed dates but are triggered by the market structure itself. In other words, when the tasks of each stage are completed—full turnover, rational chip distribution, and stable capital structure—the next stage will naturally begin. Completing a full big cycle generally takes about 2 to 5 years.

**Why look at it this way?**

The core of this reasoning is not about precisely predicting short-term market movements or hype during a bull run, but rather understanding the structural evolution of BTC and the entire digital currency system from a higher dimension within this complete cycle. In this framework, price fluctuations are a natural outcome driven by the reshaping of capital structures, deepening of financial attributes, and the evolution of human civilization’s demands for this system.

Once you understand these, short-term volatility becomes less likely to disturb your mindset.