Bitcoin Christmas Market: Is $100,000 the End or the Beginning?

"White Song called for $89,000 and $3,100 yesterday. Did you catch this move?" — If you missed it, don’t beat yourself up because the real show might just be starting.

Today is December 12, 2025, Double 12. Around this time in previous years, Bitcoin has already begun brewing the "Christmas Market." Data doesn’t lie, so let’s take a look at the history:

The Truth from Historical Data

In December of the first year after the halving, Bitcoin never backed down:

• December 2017: surged 86% (Back then, it was all retail FOMO)

• December 2020: up 48% (Institutions started entering, Grayscale led the big buys)

• December 2024: up 31% (ETF channels opened, state governments started stockpiling)

See any patterns? The deeper the involvement of institutions, the more "restrained" the gains, but the more solid the foundation. 2025 is the first year after the halving. Historical data shows that as long as exchange reserves stay below 3.75 million BTC, December’s gains have never been less than 30%.

How much is in exchanges now? 2.76 million BTC — 440,000 BTC less than at the end of last year, equivalent to about 4,000 BTC being withdrawn daily for locking. This isn’t just simple data change; it signifies a fundamental shift in market structure.

Where did the coins go? Two major "pinnacles" are locking liquidity

1. Diamond Hands: The market’s ballast

Long-term holders with over 155 days of holding now hold 13.75 million BTC, accounting for 70.4% of circulating supply. These coins are sitting in cold wallets, not participating in short-term trading, effectively providing a downward protection cushion for the market.

2. The National Teams: The hardest bullish players

The tone has really changed. JPMorgan, which once called Bitcoin a "scam," is now forcing employees to learn about Bitcoin; gold’s dead-bull Peter Schiff has shifted to gold tokenization—meaning they only recognize blockchain "daughter," not Bitcoin "father."

Even more exaggerated at the government level:

• Texas: Allocated $100 million fiscal budget to buy BTC, now holding 32,000 BTC as emergency reserves

• Florida: Allocated 5% of teachers’ pension fund (about $8.7 billion) into Bitcoin ETF

• Trump Family: Holds over 150,000 BTC via funds, controlling 23% of the US hash rate, even talking about making the country hold 10% of the global circulating supply

The former big bears are collectively rebelling. It’s not a conspiracy; it’s the market voting with its feet.

The Fed’s "herding" game

Old Powell has recently been cutting rates to give sugar while also flexing hawks—are they messing around? Not at all. He’s deliberately stirring the water, pushing funds out of traditional markets.

The US stock market is now like a broken bucket; even more liquidity won’t help. Plus, occasional government shutdowns are shaking the dollar’s credit reputation. Money is flowing out, so new reservoirs must be found—Bitcoin, which relies solely on code rules and not government backing, has become the most "honest" safe haven.

Why hasn’t the market exploded yet? Brother, a market of this size needs real money to push it. Currently, the Fed is just talking; once they start easing seriously, the market will follow. So be patient—opportunities are made by waiting.

Operation Strategy: Your capital size determines your approach

Large players (over $1 million)

HODL spot, profit from cycles. In the first year after halving, holding main coins for a year and a half with an annualized return of 30%+ is the baseline. Don’t overcomplicate—spring planting, summer sowing, autumn harvest, winter storage. Patience is key to big gains, and this logic applies here too.

Small players (under $100,000)

Trade contracts, profit from volatility. With smaller capital, don’t expect to get rich just by holding. Quick in and out, dancing on the knife’s edge, is your battlefield. But remember: flexibility and patience are survival skills, and cautiousness is your bottom line.

Some in the market will tell you "Only hold spot, don’t touch contracts," or "Contracts are the only way out." Both are right and wrong—strategy has no absolute correct answer, only what suits your actual situation.

How exactly to hold? How to trade contracts? Click the homepage to find me, join the group for some non-public insights.

Is $100,000 the ceiling or the floor?

Back to the question in the title: Can we return to $100,000 this year?

On-chain data, institutional holdings, policy shifts, Fed rate cuts—all signals point in one direction: $100,000 is not the end, but a new beginning. But the process won’t be smooth; a 30% correction could happen at any time.

So don’t try to call the top or the bottom. Choose your strategy based on your capital size, enforce stop profits and stops strictly—this is ten times more important than guessing specific levels.

📈 Do you think this Christmas market looks good? Are you in cash or fully invested? Share your position and logic in the comments so brothers can learn from each other!

💡 Think this analysis is useful? Like + follow, next article we’ll discuss specific levels!

🔄 Sharing is caring—forward this to your crypto friends so we can seize this opportunity together!

Disclaimer: This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency investment involves risks; please invest cautiously.

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