2025-12-12 21:25:21

S&P 500 Index Daily Observation

This week, I am focusing on a key signal—the first pullback of the 20-day moving average since the April low. From a technical perspective, there are two main expectations for the subsequent trend:

If the market continues to weaken next week, falling into the volume gap area or approaching the 50-day moving average support, I will consider adding to my position at that level. The specific strategy is to buy out-of-the-money call options expiring between March and April, which can control risk costs while participating in the rebound.

The core logic of this approach is to use the high leverage of options to bet on a rebound when clear support levels appear on the technical chart. The time cost is manageable, and the profit potential is good. Of course, the prerequisite is to confirm that the price has indeed touched these key support levels.

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PebbleHander

· 9h ago

Well, that's right. The 20-day moving average this time is indeed a signal; now let's see if the 50-day can hold. Wait, OTM call options betting on a rebound... I've played this trick before, but the key is to pinpoint that support level. It's another bet on a rebound. How come I feel like I always have to wait until the last moment to take action? It's easy to say, but when it reaches the gap area, I'm afraid of breaking through... That's why I always keep half my position.

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OfflineNewbie

· 12-12 21:55

Bro, I’m familiar with this move. Just wait for the breakdown to buy in, can the 50-day moving average really hold? --- OTM bullish? Are you betting on a rebound or just betting on your luck? I just don’t get it. --- You sound pretty professional, but the question is, when the market really hits that point, would you dare to bottom fish? --- Adding positions in the gap area is an old trick. When has the market ever followed the textbook? --- Options leverage is great, but I’m just worried about time decay turning you into a dog. --- Regarding the 20-day moving average retest, I’ve seen it so many times. The key is whether the trading volume cooperates. --- Adding positions sounds easy, but when it comes to actually throwing money in, I get cold feet. When will I have the guts for that? --- 50-day moving average? Is that thing still useful now? Feels like the traditional supports are pretty much useless in this round of the market. --- You seem to have a solid analysis, but if next week’s market moves in the opposite direction, don’t say I didn’t warn you.

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ProbablyNothing

· 12-12 21:55

Talking about support levels again... Why do I feel this set of explanations always sound convincing but never actually work? Betting on rebounds is fine, but OTM options really suffer from time decay, and the risks aren't that small, brother. Can the 50-day moving average hold this time? Feels a bit shaky.

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MeaninglessApe

· 12-12 21:46

The 50-day moving average can't hold up anymore, this pullback feels a bit fierce. --- OTM bullish options are really solid, just worried that the gap won't be filled and will continue to fall. --- First retest of the 20-day moving average, no need to fear this signal, next week it will break through and go. --- Wait for support levels to be confirmed before acting, don't rush to catch the bottom, it's easy to get trapped at this stage. --- Options leverage is tempting, but time decay is also despairing, stay calm. --- The volume gap is the real support, everything else is just虚的. --- It looks like trying to bet on a rebound, but the pattern hasn't cleared up yet this week. --- Before increasing positions, look at the size; don't use all your ammo on this wave. --- The 50-day moving average really broke, and the gap might not be able to save it.

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LiquidityWizard

· 12-12 21:44

It's the same options player routine again, many are betting on the rebound until bankruptcy... However, the 50-day moving average level is indeed worth watching.

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MetaverseHobo

· 12-12 21:36

Can the 20-day moving average rebound support this wave? Feeling uncertain... I've also considered using OTM call options, but I'm worried that time decay will eat up all the profits.

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AirdropChaser

· 12-12 21:34

The 50-day moving average is indeed a good sniper point, just worried it might not go down enough. --- OTM call options are also something I've been considering, but the key is whether the time cost is really bearable. --- First test of the 20-day moving average rebound? Feels like this signal is a bit weak. --- Adding positions is possible, but it depends on whether the gap can be filled, otherwise it’s like taking a knife. --- Confirming support levels sounds simple in theory but difficult in practice; who can actually hit the mark precisely? --- Options leverage is tempting, but those who get margin calls think the same way. --- I think rather than betting on a rebound, it's safer to wait for a more definite double bottom signal.

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