Recently, financial data has been released, revealing an interesting phenomenon: the entire market seems not to lack money, but the flow is just not moving.
First, looking at the total social financing (TSF), November saw an increase of 2.49 trillion yuan. This "financing total" hasn't shrunk, mainly because the government is issuing bonds (accounting for nearly 40%) and enterprises are also issuing bonds to support the situation. In other words, people are not relying on bank loans but are obtaining funds through direct financing.
In contrast, new RMB loans only amounted to 0.39 trillion yuan. This number actually tells two stories: one, local governments are conducting debt swaps, replacing some existing loans; two, the desire for enterprises and individuals to borrow money has not yet awakened. Banks are somewhat冷淡 (冷清 - quiet/slow).
The best illustration of the issue is the widening gap between M2 and M1. To explain simply: M2 is the "total purse" of society, including demand and time deposits; M1 is the "spendable cash" that can be used at any time. The larger the gap between the two, the more idle funds there are. The current situation is that enterprises are reluctant to invest and prefer to keep money in fixed deposits; ordinary people also prefer saving more, with low consumption desires. The speed of capital flow is slowing down, and market vitality indeed needs some stimulation.
Overall, it's not a problem of money itself, but that these funds are all in "wait-and-see" mode. The government and direct financing are providing support, but the real economic动力 (动力 - driving force) still depends on enterprises and consumption to truly pick up.
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SmartContractRebel
· 12-12 16:48
All the money is stuck in fixed deposits, which is ridiculous, what's the difference from HODL.
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The widening of the scissors difference basically means everyone is betting on when the bottom will be seen.
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Companies are reluctant to invest? Then I’d better start bottom-fishing in the crypto space.
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The government and direct financing are struggling to hold on, but in the end, it still depends on when market sentiment shifts.
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With M1 shrinking so drastically, consumer activity really lacks vitality.
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Traditional credit is only 0.39 trillion yuan, banks are indeed cold, but what about on-chain liquidity?
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Ultimately, it's still the heavy sense of caution; no one dares to be the first to take the plunge.
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Dead capital accumulates, active capital is scarce, these data are forcing people to find new outlets.
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SerumSquirter
· 12-12 16:45
All the money is shrinking while lying idle; no one dares to spend or invest. This is ridiculous.
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NullWhisperer
· 12-12 16:44
technically speaking, the M2/M1 gap widening is basically a liquidity trap dressed up in macroeconomic language. money's there but nobody's actually *moving* it... which is honestly kind of fascinating from a systems perspective. like watching capital gridlock in real time.
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TokenDustCollector
· 12-12 16:28
Basically, it means the money has all been hidden away; who dares to move it?
Recently, financial data has been released, revealing an interesting phenomenon: the entire market seems not to lack money, but the flow is just not moving.
First, looking at the total social financing (TSF), November saw an increase of 2.49 trillion yuan. This "financing total" hasn't shrunk, mainly because the government is issuing bonds (accounting for nearly 40%) and enterprises are also issuing bonds to support the situation. In other words, people are not relying on bank loans but are obtaining funds through direct financing.
In contrast, new RMB loans only amounted to 0.39 trillion yuan. This number actually tells two stories: one, local governments are conducting debt swaps, replacing some existing loans; two, the desire for enterprises and individuals to borrow money has not yet awakened. Banks are somewhat冷淡 (冷清 - quiet/slow).
The best illustration of the issue is the widening gap between M2 and M1. To explain simply: M2 is the "total purse" of society, including demand and time deposits; M1 is the "spendable cash" that can be used at any time. The larger the gap between the two, the more idle funds there are. The current situation is that enterprises are reluctant to invest and prefer to keep money in fixed deposits; ordinary people also prefer saving more, with low consumption desires. The speed of capital flow is slowing down, and market vitality indeed needs some stimulation.
Overall, it's not a problem of money itself, but that these funds are all in "wait-and-see" mode. The government and direct financing are providing support, but the real economic动力 (动力 - driving force) still depends on enterprises and consumption to truly pick up.