Analysis: Bitcoin May Be Entering a More Mature New Cycle, But Year-End Performance Still Uncertain

Fidelity Global Macro Director Jurrien Timmer posted on X platform stating that the current market is in the year-end closing phase. Excessive speculation has been cleared, boosting market sentiment. Coupled with the implementation of the Federal Reserve’s easing policies and stable bond and forex markets, these factors together create a relatively robust macro environment.

However, Timmer also mentioned that the “Bitcoin Treasury Company,” which previously played a key role in Bitcoin’s rise, has undergone a fundamental shift in its market narrative. The financial pressure on related companies and the potential token sell-off risks have shifted from a driving force behind price increases to a major obstacle in the current market.

This change in market narrative, combined with the reality of Bitcoin’s price breaking below its long-term trendline on technical charts, has sparked widespread doubts about whether its iconic four-year cycle is coming to an end.

Regarding the core question of whether Bitcoin’s iconic four-year cycle has ended, Timmer does not rely on market news or subjective judgment. Instead, he analyzes Bitcoin’s multi-year price volatility curve, dissecting the mathematical patterns of its wave movements to provide an analytical perspective.

He points out that from 2010 to now, Bitcoin has experienced five major bull markets. These cycles follow a clear long-term pattern: after each rally, the new cycle’s price gains gradually diminish, but the duration of bull and bear cycles continues to lengthen.

This “diminishing gains, lengthening cycles” pattern also indicates that Bitcoin’s market is transitioning from an early stage of intense volatility to a more mature phase with converging fluctuations.

For example, the 2022 third halving cycle of Bitcoin, which saw a rally after falling to $16,000, fully conforms to this pattern and also reflects the market’s gradual maturation.

Based on this wave analysis model, Timmer shared a forecast for Bitcoin’s potential target in the current cycle. According to his trend analysis chart, if the fifth wave rally continues this trend, Bitcoin’s theoretical peak price could be around $151,360.

Finally, do you agree with Timmer’s wave theory of Bitcoin’s cycle? Do you think BTC will reach a peak of $150,000 in this cycle?

#比特币周期 #Wave Theory