Fidelity: a new Bitcoin analysis hints at a possible new growth wave in 2026

Fidelity analysts are debating how the current Bitcoin growth wave will shape price action into late 2025 and through a potentially volatile 2026.

Fidelity wave analysis and the Bitcoin growth

Bitcoin expansion has followed distinct historical patterns that market strategists increasingly use to frame long-term price scenarios. Recently, Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, shared a detailed analysis based on a multi-wave development framework for the asset’s network and price.

Experts remain cautiously optimistic about next year. However, they stress that this optimism comes with clear caveats, as the asset’s volatility and macro sensitivity remain high.

In his latest report, Timmer argued that each major price cycle has displayed a smaller magnitude of upside yet has also lasted longer. Moreover, he described this pattern as consistent with a maturing network that is increasingly institutionalized and widely held.

Inside Bitcoin’s fifth wave and the potential sixth surge

Using historical data stretching back to 2010, Timmer concluded that Bitcoin currently trades within its fifth wave. According to his work, this cycle started from the 2022 bear-market low of $16,603 and could reach a projected peak near $151,360 if the pattern holds.

“It is hard to tell in real time whether a new winter is upon us,” Timmer noted. However, he added that the evolving wave structure of the network curve suggests the bull phase that began around $16,000 in 2022 now looks “pretty mature.”

In the near term, Timmer remains constructive about year-end performance. Moreover, he credited improving investor sentiment to the Federal Reserve‘s recent monetary easing measures, which have historically supported risk assets when policy becomes more accommodative.

Over a longer horizon, he outlined what a sixth growth wave could look like. The model relies on linear projections derived from price and network data gathered across the previous five waves, producing what Timmer calls a Descending Slope chart for future cycles.

Wave projections and key support levels

In that Descending Slope framework, Timmer’s study highlights three consecutive cycles. According to the data, Wave 4 saw BTC advance roughly 20 times over 153 weeks from its low to its peak, marking one of the asset’s most powerful historical rallies.

Meanwhile, the ongoing Wave 5 could produce a roughly 9 times gain across approximately 160 weeks if it tracks the model. However, the analysis also projects that Wave 6, expected further out, may rise by about 5 times over nearly 168 weeks, signaling a slower yet still meaningful appreciation.

Crucially, the wave structure does not identify an exact future bottom where the sixth cycle begins. That said, Timmer pointed to a potential support zone near the current cycle’s floor around $80,554, which could act as a reference level for long-term investors.

These projections collectively imply a relatively constructive early 2026 backdrop, since the ongoing fifth wave may not be fully completed by then. The broader bitcoin growth wave structure, in this view, still leaves room for upside before a more durable consolidation.

Short-term sentiment, monetary easing and institutional behavior

Other market participants share Timmer’s constructive but measured stance. Jimmy Xue, COO and Co-founder of Axis, argued that the impact of the Fed‘s rate cuts should begin to appear more clearly in price action over the coming quarters.

“We are leaning towards a period of stabilization and chop rather than a V-shape rebound immediately,” Xue said. However, he emphasized that the market needs time to absorb recent volatility before any sustained advance can take hold.

Xue added that the medium-term setup remains bullish for the first quarter of 2026. Moreover, he expects rate cuts to filter through to global liquidity while institutional allocations reset in January, which could underpin renewed demand for digital assets.

At the same time, institutional behavior continues to play a central role in the asset’s profile. Large investors have been accumulating BTC over the last two years, a period that coincides with the approval and rollout of spot Bitcoin ETFs in major markets.

Risks, election-year seasonality and 2026 scenarios

Despite these supportive factors, several observers warn that the coming cycle may face headwinds. The year 2026 is a midterm election year in the United States, and historical performance patterns show that the asset has often struggled in such environments.

Data cited in the discussion suggests that during previous midterm cycles, drawdowns of roughly 60% to 75% have occurred. However, analysts caution that sample sizes remain limited and that structural changes, such as ETF adoption, could alter future behavior.

These conflicting perspectives create a wide band of possible outcomes for investors to consider. Moreover, they underscore how macro policy shifts, regulatory developments and risk appetite may interact with long-running wave structures to shape returns.

On balance, the current bitcoin fifth wave framework points to a maturing yet still expansionary phase, while election-year seasonality and volatility keep downside risks firmly in view. Institutional investors who have steadily increased exposure since ETF approval will be watching 2026 closely as these themes collide.

In summary, Fidelity’s wave-based projections, supportive monetary policy and ongoing institutional demand all hint at further upside, even as midterm-year history and cycle maturity argue for caution in navigating the next phase.

In summary, Fidelity’s wave-based projections, supportive monetary policy and ongoing institutional demand all hint at further upside, even as midterm-year history and cycle maturity argue for caution in navigating the next phase.