XRP Price Warning: If it loses the key support, analysts say the next target may point to $1.2

XRP price is approaching a decisive moment. As of December 12, XRP’s trading price on Gate has hovered around the key psychological support level of $2.00, down approximately 4.1% over the past 24 hours.

This echoes the nearly one-month decline in exchange reserve value, which has fallen as much as 18.83%.

According to multiple analysts, the current support zone around $2.00 is critical. If this line of defense is broken, the price could accelerate downward toward the next significant support at $1.93, opening the door to further declines toward $1.20.

01 Current Price Status and Key Support

Currently, XRP’s price is battling around the psychological level of $2.00. According to the latest data from December 11, its trading price is $2.0048, a 4.118% decrease over the past 24 hours.

The price is fluctuating within a narrow range of $2.0000 to $2.1108, indicating market hesitation and a nearing decision on direction.

Analyst ChartNerd points out that XRP is testing a critical technical junction: the 20-month exponential moving average (EMA) near $1.93. Historically, successful re-tests of this EMA often signal subsequent rallies.

This makes it a key indicator for measuring the health of the market’s long-term trend.

02 Warning Signs on Technical Charts

On the technical charts, a clear descending triangle pattern is forming, which is often seen as a bearish continuation signal.

The upper trendline of this pattern connects a series of decreasing highs, indicating sellers are engaging earlier on each rebound, while buyers are defending at the fixed level of $2.00.

Analyst Ali notes that this pattern is nearing completion of its compression phase, foreshadowing an imminent decisive breakout. Momentum indicators also show signs of weakness.

The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 42, not yet in oversold territory, but clearly lacking upward momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is also below zero, further confirming market weakness.

03 On-chain Data Divergence and Insights

Contrasting the price weakness, on-chain data shows significant signs of “accumulation.” According to CryptoQuant data, over the past month, more than 1.32 billion XRP have been withdrawn from centralized exchanges, with exchange reserves decreasing from approximately $7.03 billion to $5.70 billion.

Analyst Niels interprets this as “smart money” or long-term holders accumulating positions without short-term selling intent. The large outflow of tokens from exchanges suggests a reduced supply of liquidity available for immediate sell-offs.

Historically, such sharp declines in exchange reserves, if confirmed by technical support, often precede strong rebounds in price.

04 If Support Fails, Potential Downside Path

If the support zone between $2.00 and $1.93 ultimately breaks, analysts warn that downside space could open.

The next key support levels to watch are in the $1.82 to $1.90 range. Once this area is breached, the price might continue downward.

In a more pessimistic scenario, some analysts target the $1.20 level. The depth of the decline will depend on overall market sentiment and whether XRP can be driven by new positive fundamental factors.

05 Investor Watchlist and Trading Strategies

For investors trading XRP on Gate, it’s crucial to closely monitor the following key signals.

First, observe whether the $2.00 support holds or breaks. If it sustains and the price rebounds, there could be a short-term rally toward resistance between $2.06 and $2.09.

Second, track changes in exchange reserve data. If reserves continue to decline sharply while prices stabilize, it may reinforce the “accumulation” narrative and lay the groundwork for a medium- to long-term rebound.

Finally, pay attention to macro market sentiment and capital flows in related ETFs. Despite market pressure, spot ETFs related to Ripple have maintained continuous net inflows since launch, which is an encouraging sign.

Future Outlook

As of December 12, XRP’s trading price on Gate is tightly holding the critical $2.00 threshold. Over 1.3 billion XRP have exited exchanges in the past month, suggesting large funds may be quietly positioning.

The descending triangle pattern on the technical charts is approaching its apex, indicating a calm before the storm. The next move will likely depend on whether the $2.00 support level can hold.

If the price stabilizes here and attracts new buying interest, it could surge toward $2.40. Conversely, if the support fails, the market may enter a bottoming phase, with initial targets around $1.82 and deeper targets potentially at $1.20.