Bitcoin's Difficult November: Market Hits Bottom in December After 30% Plunge

November 17th, Bitcoin price dipped to $93,714, temporarily erasing the entire year’s gains for 2025. This was just the beginning, as Bitcoin continued to decline, at one point falling to around $80,600 near the end of November.

Compared to the all-time high of $126,000 set on October 6th, Bitcoin’s market capitalization evaporated by over 30% in just over a month. The total market cap of all crypto assets lost more than $1 trillion within six weeks.

01 Black November

November 2025 was a brutal month for the crypto market. Bitcoin started to decline from about $111,586 at the beginning of the month, dropping as low as $80,698, and closed the month with an average of $97,097.

This means an overall decline of approximately 18-20% in November, completely disrupting market expectations of an average 42% rise in November historically. From a monthly performance perspective, this was Bitcoin’s second-worst month in 2025.

Market sentiment indicators clearly reflected this panic. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index remained in the “Extreme Fear” zone throughout November, dropping as low as 11 points.

On-chain data shows that since October 6th, long-term holders’ Bitcoin holdings surged from 159,000 to 345,000 coins, with a net increase of 186,000 coins within a month. This “diamond hands” contrarian accumulation behavior strongly diverged from the ongoing price decline.

02 Multiple Pressures Squeeze

This sharp drop was not triggered by a single event but was the result of multiple pressures acting together. The market lacks consensus on the Federal Reserve’s policy direction in December, with rate cut expectations fluctuating.

Changes in the macroeconomic environment directly impact risk assets, including US stocks and cryptocurrencies, which are all experiencing adjustments.

The capital pressure is even more direct. Bitcoin spot ETFs, which performed well mid-year, have shifted to consistent net outflows since September.

On November 13th, Bitcoin ETF’s daily outflow reached $866.7 million, the largest single-day outflow this month. In total, ETF outflows in November approached $2.5 billion.

Meanwhile, “whale” accounts showed clear signs of reduction. Some early holders, after significant gains, chose to cash out, causing the market to absorb a large supply of old coins during periods of limited liquidity, exacerbating short-term volatility.

According to James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares, since September, large holders have sold off over $20 billion worth of crypto assets.

03 Market Structure Fragility

Bitcoin’s high-leverage structure further amplified volatility. During November, over 230,000 trading accounts were liquidated within 24 hours, totaling more than $1 billion.

Analysts at Nansen, a crypto data firm, noted that structural funds brought in by ETFs mid-year once injected strong confidence into the market, rebranding Bitcoin as a “macro hedge tool.”

However, recent capital flows have significantly stagnated. The share prices of some crypto companies have fallen back close to their Bitcoin on-balance-sheet value, reflecting a marginal decline in “faith premium.”

The defense posture in the derivatives market also confirms market fragility. Options market sentiment has cooled significantly, with the premium of one-week put options over call options dropping sharply from November’s highs.

Open interest in futures contracts continues to decline, indicating a substantial reduction in speculative activity. Traders have not increased their risk exposure to downside; instead, they are systematically deleveraging.

04 Latest December Market Dynamics

Entering December, some positive changes have emerged. As of the time of writing on December 12th, Bitcoin is trading at $92,362.57, up 2.83% in 24 hours.

On December 12th, Bitcoin reached a high of $94,601.57 and a low of $87,799.56, with a 24-hour trading volume of $60.103 billion. The current market cap is approximately $1.84 trillion, an increase of $50.697 billion from yesterday.

The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut and a $40 billion short-term Treasury purchase plan, which temporarily pushed Bitcoin higher to the $94,601 high.

However, divergent policy expectations led to subsequent pullbacks. Currently, Bitcoin seeks support around the $90,000 level. Technical indicators show that if it falls below the $88,000–$89,000 support zone, it could test the lower $85,000 level.

Meanwhile, institutional participation shows polarization. On one side, Nasdaq-listed Lion Group invested $8 million to buy 88.49 BTC; Spanish-listed Vanadi Coffee added 10 BTC.

On the other side, Bitcoin tech firm Satsuma sold 579 BTC to cope with loan maturity pressures. Data shows that since the beginning of the year, the Bitcoin reserves of listed and private companies have surged by 448%, reaching 1.08 million coins. Long-term demand remains solid, but short-term institutional actions are still polarized.

05 Future Outlook and Key Variables

Technical analysis offers some key reference points for Bitcoin’s future trajectory. Currently, Bitcoin’s short-term support is around $80,000, with resistance between $90,000 and $95,000.

According to the latest market analysis, Bitcoin’s attempt to break through the $93,000–$94,000 range has not succeeded. Market focus is now on the next critical support, especially in the $88,000–$89,000 zone.

If Bitcoin can hold this support, the price could rebound. But if it cannot sustain this level, analysts forecast a further decline toward $85,000.

The macro liquidity environment will be one of the core variables influencing the market trend. Ding Yuan, director of New Fire Research Institute, states that Bitcoin’s framework as an inflation hedge, currency devaluation, and geopolitical risk mitigation remains valid.

However, it still needs time to become a mature asset class. Future key variables include: further improvement of ETF channels, clarification of global regulatory environments, and whether on-chain finance and cross-border payments can continue to penetrate.

Despite short-term volatility intensifying, such turbulence helps “weed out fake” and correct overly risk-seeking sectors with valuations detached from fundamentals. Several asset correlation indicators have fallen to historic lows, indicating the market is experiencing a synchronized deleveraging and sentiment reset.

Bitcoin November and early December performance comparison

Meanwhile, ongoing progress in Bitcoin network technology and application layer expansion continues. Blockstream researchers proposed hash-based signatures as a quantum-resistant upgrade plan for Bitcoin.

Blockstream wallets, integrated with Boltz, enable trustless swaps between Lightning and Liquid networks. Bitcoin reward application Lolli now supports Lightning network withdrawals. Layer 2 ecosystem continues to improve.

These infrastructural developments provide more possibilities for real-world application of Bitcoin.

Future Outlook

Bitcoin’s price temporarily stabilized above $92,000 on December 12th, with a 24-hour increase of over 2.8%. The total crypto market cap also rebounded to $32.3 trillion.

Analyst Akshat Siddhant pointed out: “While increased liquidity will have a stronger long-term impact, short-term sentiment is also improving, and renewed institutional inflows support this.”

In the trading halls in the afternoon, several traders kept an eye on the candlestick charts. Bitcoin’s curve, like an injured beast, struggles and gasps near key support levels, with every slight fluctuation affecting millions of investors worldwide.