Dogecoin ETF debut cools off, but technical analysts still loudly proclaim DOGE could still break $1?

Thursday, the Federal Reserve announced its third interest rate cut of the year, lowering the target range for the benchmark interest rate to 3.5% — 3.75%, but the risk asset markets reacted with little change.

As the leading meme coin, Dogecoin (DOGE), lands officially on traditional financial markets through ETFs, its price remains within a narrow range of $0.13 to $0.15 with sideways fluctuations.

Market participants’ attention is focused on two questions: why hasn’t the ETF launch boosted the price? Beneath the quiet price charts, is there hidden potential for a surge to $1?

01 Market Reaction: ETF Launch and Traditional Financial Acceptance

Dogecoin is undergoing a profound transformation from internet culture to Wall Street. In September this year, REX Shares and Osprey Funds jointly launched the REX-Osprey Dogecoin ETF (trading code $DOJE).

This product cleverly leverages the regulatory shortcut provided by the 1940 Investment Company Act, bypassing cumbersome procedures and offering Wall Street investors the first regulated Dogecoin investment channel. Its initial price was approximately $26.53 per share.

Subsequently, in November, the crypto asset management giant Grayscale’s spot Dogecoin ETF (trading code $GDOG) was also listed on NYSE Arca. The fund was converted from the previous Grayscale Dogecoin Trust and is now fully open to retail and institutional investors.

This means traditional financial markets have opened the door for Dogecoin, allowing institutional capital such as pension funds and registered investment advisors to enter compliantly. However, unlike the enthusiastic scenes during Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF listings, capital inflows into Dogecoin ETFs have yet to generate sustained directional momentum.

At ETF launch, Dogecoin was priced around $0.1476, with a single-day increase of only 1.2%. Market analysis suggests that the ETF launch coincided with a generally weak meme coin sector, which explains the lackluster price response.

02 Latest Developments: Price Resilience Amid Rate Cuts

As of December 12, 2025, Dogecoin’s latest trading price is approximately $0.1405, up slightly by 0.69% in the past 24 hours. The intraday price fluctuation range is between $0.1382 and $0.1408, indicating limited market participation even under macro catalysts like the Fed’s rate cut.

On-chain data shows some positive signals. Recently, whale wallets have increased their holdings by about 480 million DOGE. Meanwhile, trading activity has remained active following the launch of Grayscale and Bitwise’s spot DOGE ETFs.

In terms of trading volume, about 651.7 million tokens were traded in the past 24 hours, about 7% higher than the 7-day average. This increase more likely reflects market position adjustments rather than aggressive capital accumulation.

On the technical side, DOGE’s price repeatedly failed to break through resistance near $0.1425 to $0.1430, while buyers continue to defend support around $0.1380. The price structure continues to show a pennant or compression pattern, suggesting more intense volatility may come from a breakout rather than gradual moves.

03 Technical Analysis: Key Chart Patterns and the $1 Path

Despite recent flat performance, technical analysts see potential paths to higher prices from the charts. A bullish cup-and-handle pattern is forming, with $0.30 viewed as a short-term target.

More ambitious long-term forecasts suggest that if bullish sentiment persists, the price could fluctuate to $2. Some analysts even believe that Dogecoin’s daily technical indicators show it is undervalued, and cycle patterns suggest a rebound to $1 before the end of the year.

Noted analyst Trader Tardigrade (X account @TATrader_Alan) pointed out that Dogecoin may have completed a trendline retest on the daily chart, which is often a technical confirmation signal before a price rise.

He also noted that Dogecoin maintains key support on the weekly chart. Such retests are typically confirmation of support, providing a solid foundation for bullish momentum.

From a morphological perspective, Dogecoin is forming a bullish megaphone pattern. Analyst Bitcoinsensus pointed out that such expanding ranges have historically yielded excess returns, and the current upward momentum could push DOGE to $1.40, a 400% increase from current levels.

Dogecoin has been trading sideways between two converging trendlines for nearly two months, forming a symmetrical triangle pattern. Currently, the price is near $0.145, showing demand pressure at the triangle’s lower trendline.

04 Market Outlook: Support, Resistance, and Breakout Opportunities

The current market structure of Dogecoin can be summarized by several key levels. The recent price floor around $0.1380 has been tested multiple times, confirming its importance as a short-term bottom.

Momentum indicators remain neutral, consistent with sideways trading rather than trending development. Traders are focusing on the key support at $0.21, which has shown resilience recently.

Analysts emphasize that maintaining support above $0.1380 is crucial for the integrity of the price structure. However, if the price cannot regain stability above the $0.1420 to $0.1450 zone, upside potential remains limited.

Once this resistance zone is effectively broken, the price could open the way toward $0.16 to $0.18. Conversely, if support at $0.1380 fails, the price could drop toward the recent lows around $0.13.

For a larger rally, analysts believe Dogecoin needs to break through resistance at $0.175. Once achieved, upward momentum could accumulate, pushing the price toward the psychological level of $0.20, with short-term targets between $0.23 and $0.25.

Long-term, market observers expect Dogecoin to reach $0.30 or higher in Q4 2025, depending on the implementation and adoption of its second-layer upgrades.

As of press time, DOGE is trading at $0.1405 on Gate.io. Over the past 24 hours, trading volume on the platform reached 651.7 million tokens, remaining active.

Cautious signals from technical indicators

Relative Strength Index (RSI) and other momentum indicators are currently hovering around 50, indicating a neutral zone. This state aligns with sideways trading rather than trend development, suggesting the market is waiting for stronger catalysts to clarify direction.

Analysts note that the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also shows potential bullish crossover signs. However, these signals require a price breakthrough of key resistance levels for confirmation.

Signals on the daily chart gain credibility when higher lows appear on the hourly chart, which may indicate a reversal from recent corrections. Traders should monitor key support levels near recent lows, possibly between $0.10 and $0.12.

Future Outlook

Despite spot Dogecoin ETF products from institutions like Grayscale already listed on NYSE Arca, DOGE remains confined within a narrow range of $0.1380 to $0.1425.

Over 480 million DOGE have been quietly accumulated by whale wallets, while technical analysts identify potential bullish patterns pointing toward $1.

Dogecoin stands at a critical crossroads: on one side, recognition and acceptance from the traditional financial world; on the other, its inherent volatility and speculative nature. Support below the price is solid, while resistance above awaits a breakout, as the market silently waits for a clear signal.