XRP price shows initial resilience above $2.15: is it a rebound or a continuation of the decline?

As of December 12, XRP’s latest price hovered around $2.01, having just undergone a test of the key support at $2.00.

Market focus is on: Is this dip the start of a new downward trend, or a sign of accumulation above an important support level? Currently, XRP’s price is tightly hugging the lower boundary of a descending channel formed since August, with multiple moving averages exerting resistance overhead.

01 Price Performance and Market Context

Entering December, XRP’s market performance continues to be under pressure. According to the latest data, XRP briefly fell below $2.00 on December 12 and is now trading around $2.01.

This contrasts with the rebound from the support at $2.15 at the end of November, when the market anticipated a mid-term rally toward the center of the $2.60 channel.

From a broader cycle perspective, XRP saw a breakout after significant progress in the legal dispute with the SEC in August 2025, briefly spiking above $3.30.

However, it failed to sustain the rally, entering a prolonged downtrend. The rate against Bitcoin also weakened, breaking below the critical 2,400 satoshis level.

02 Key Technical Levels and Chart Patterns

The current technical chart provides a clear roadmap for XRP’s next move. The $2.00 to $2.15 zone is widely regarded as a key demand area in the near term.

The table below summarizes the critical price levels to watch for XRP:

From a chart pattern perspective, XRP’s daily chart remains dominated by a long-term descending channel. Each attempt to rebound toward the channel’s upper boundary (currently around $2.40 - $2.60) faces selling pressure and pulls back.

Additionally, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) sits at around $2.30, and the 200-day SMA at approximately $2.62. Both are well above the current price and are arranged in a bearish alignment, reinforcing the medium-term bearish outlook.

03 On-Chain Data and Market Sentiment

On-chain data provides another dimension of confirmation. A notable change is the significant decline in XRP reserves held on centralized exchanges.

Data shows that from November 10 to December 10, exchange-held XRP reserves decreased from over $703 million to about $570 million, a reduction of more than $132 million within a month, an 18.83% decline.

This phenomenon can be interpreted in two ways: On one hand, it may indicate investors are transferring tokens from exchanges to private wallets for long-term storage (“HODLing”), suggesting reduced selling pressure. On the other hand, it could simply reflect investors reducing their holdings overall due to market weakness.

Given the synchronized decline in price, the latter seems more likely. Decreasing reserves also mean reduced exchange liquidity, which could amplify price volatility in the future.

04 Short-term Outlook and Risk Warning

Overall, the hope for XRP above $2.15 is more a technical support cushion than a definitive trend reversal signal.

The short-term market path will depend on the defense of the $2.00 - $2.15 support zone. If the price can establish a solid footing and rebound here, the first upside target will be $2.24, followed by another challenge of the $2.40 - $2.60 resistance zone.

However, risks should not be overlooked. If the $2.00 level is broken decisively, technical analysis suggests the price could quickly slide to $1.80 or even test the longer-term support at $1.50.

For traders looking to position near current levels, strict risk management and stop-loss placement are crucial. Market volatility could intensify due to liquidity fluctuations on exchanges, so all trading decisions should be made based on individual risk tolerance.

Future Outlook

As of December 12, XRP’s 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands around 47, in the neutral zone, showing no strong signs of oversold conditions or bullish divergence.

Meanwhile, the exchange-held XRP reserves have sharply declined over the past month by more than 18%, and the draining liquidity reveals the fragile market structure gradually coming to light.