Bitcoin remains steady above $92,000. Is this a trend reversal or a "bull trap"?

Bitcoin prices briefly surged past $94,601 on Beijing time December 11, then retreated to around $92,362. Despite a daily increase of 2.83% and a 24-hour trading volume of $60.103 billion, on-chain data and market indicators reveal an unoptimistic reality.

Within just five minutes, Bitcoin’s price dropped by 0.82%, highlighting the market’s instability.

01 Market Status

As of December 12, Bitcoin is priced at $92,362.57, achieving a 2.83% increase over the past 24 hours. This performance successfully keeps Bitcoin above the key psychological threshold of $92,000.

During the day, Bitcoin reached a high of $94,601.57 and dipped to a low of $87,799.56. The $6,800 range of volatility demonstrates the significant uncertainty currently present in the market.

Bitcoin’s market capitalization is approximately $1.84 trillion, up $50.698 billion from yesterday. The total cryptocurrency market cap has reclaimed the $1.87 trillion mark, increasing over $200 billion in 24 hours, indicating a strong V-shaped reversal momentum.

02 Technical Signals

From a technical analysis perspective, attempts by Bitcoin to break through the resistance zone between $93,000 and $94,000 have failed. This setback shifts market focus to important support levels below.

Analysts widely watch the support zone between $88,000 and $89,000, expecting this area to be retested soon. If Bitcoin can remain stable within this support, the price could regain strength.

Technical indicators show that the MACD histogram indicates weakening buying momentum, with the MACD line below the signal line, suggesting potential further downside pressure. Meanwhile, RSI at 45 reflects a neutral market sentiment.

03 On-Chain Data

On-chain data reveal a more complex market dynamic. Whales engaging in long positions with WBTC have begun deleveraging, selling 150 BTC at an average price of $92,276 over three hours to repay Aave loans.

This indicates that leveraged longs are shrinking.

More alarmingly, Bitcoin whale addresses holding between 100,000 and 1 million coins have sold or transferred 36,500 BTC since early December, worth approximately $3.373 billion. These on-chain movements suggest large holders are gradually reducing risk exposure, potentially suppressing short-term prices.

04 Institutional Behavior

Institutional capital participation in Bitcoin shows divergence. On one hand, Nasdaq-listed Lion Group bought 88.49 BTC for $8 million, and Spanish-listed Vanadi Coffee added 10 BTC.

On the other hand, Bitcoin tech firm Satsuma sold 579 BTC to meet loan maturity pressures, netting $53.2 million.

Since the beginning of the year, Bitcoin reserves held by listed and private enterprises have surged 448% to 1.08 million BTC, indicating solid long-term demand. However, short-term institutional actions remain mixed, reflecting a conflicted sentiment among investors under current market conditions.

05 Leverage Risks

A key risk point in the current market is excessive leverage. Although Bitcoin rebounded strongly on December 12, surging past $93,000 and nearly erasing the previous two days’ declines, liquidation data reveal unusual phenomena: the total amount of short positions liquidated that day was only about $300 million, in stark contrast to the $833 million of long positions liquidated on December 11.

This asymmetric liquidation pattern suggests that, despite the rebound, short positions were liquidated far less than longs the previous day. The market remains overly “greedy” in the short term, with too many leveraged long positions still active.

06 Macro Factors

Fed policy developments continue to influence the cryptocurrency market. On December 12, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut and a $40 billion short-term government bond purchase plan.

This easing policy briefly pushed Bitcoin to a high of $94,601, but subsequent pullbacks occurred amid policy expectations divergence. Currently, Bitcoin is seeking support near $90,000, indicating that while easing is positive, market doubts about policy durability persist.

Additionally, disagreements among Fed officials have increased uncertainty about monetary policy direction. This environment of policy ambiguity makes investors more cautious, especially in high-valuation asset classes.

07 Investor Strategies

In such a market environment, risk management becomes especially critical. The $80,000 support level for Bitcoin is seen as a key point determining whether selling pressure will intensify.

An experienced trader shared on the Gate platform: “Better to realize a $2.3 loss now than gamble on a 0.73% chance. The account is now clean—$993.66 in cash, with zero margin used.”

He emphasized: “Risk management always comes first. There are no exceptions.” This conservative approach is particularly prudent in the current highly volatile market.

Technically, if Bitcoin falls below the $88,000–$89,000 support zone, it may test the lower $85,000 level. Investors should closely monitor these critical price points.

Future Outlook

After Bitcoin briefly broke above $94,601 on December 11, the market immediately retreated to around $92,362. Although the total crypto market cap increased by over $200 billion in 24 hours, returning to $1.87 trillion.

Over-leveraged longs remain a looming threat. On-chain data show that whale addresses have transferred $3.373 billion worth of Bitcoin since early December.

The technological evolution of the Bitcoin network continues, with quantum-resistant upgrades and Layer 2 ecosystem improvements providing infrastructure support for its long-term development. But currently, the market demands patience and risk management rather than blind pursuit of short-term fluctuations.