BTC, ETH, BNB

A 25 bps rate cut? The market has already priced it in.
Now everyone is watching not whether the rate will be cut, but the signal of a shift.

The 10-year US Treasury yield has already broken 4.16%. This number isn’t floating randomly—the market is betting on one thing in advance: the Federal Reserve may cut rates, but their stance won’t soften.

**The first variable: How Powell communicates**
What truly makes people nervous is never whether rates will be cut, but a “hawkish rate cut.”
On the surface, rates are lowered; in reality, the language hints: inflation pressures are not gone, the labor market remains stable, and the subsequent pace won’t be too aggressive.
Once this signal appears, long-term interest rates will continue to rise, and valuation logic for risk assets needs to be recalculated.

**The second variable: Rate expectations for 2026**
Don’t fixate on the figures for 2025.
What truly influences capital costs is “where neutral interest rates will be in the next two years.”
If the Fed quietly adjusts its expectations for neutral rates upward, it’s essentially saying: cheap money won’t be as easily available in the future.
This scatter plot directly determines whether Tech Stocks and the Crypto market can continue to hold up next.

**The third variable: Hidden effects of liquidity tools**
Many people overlook this—such technical tools like RMP, once officially activated, are almost equivalent to “quiet QE.”
They won’t make headlines, but they can suppress long-end pressure and stabilize the financial system from behind the scenes.
Once such actions are implemented, the market often doesn’t give an early signal.

Meanwhile, the underlying structure of the Crypto market is...