Can BTC return to $100,000 before the end of the year? This question now seems a bit uncertain.

Market sentiment? To be honest, quite gloomy.

Just look at the data from the prediction markets. On the Kalshi platform, traders' answer is: a 34% chance of breaking $100,000 before December 31st. Polymarket is more conservative, estimating only about a 29% chance of hitting $100,000 within the entire year of 2025.

In other words, most people do not expect to break this threshold in the short term. In these 21 days, it’s likely to still linger below $100,000.

Of course, in the crypto market, no one can predict when a black swan event will occur. But based on the current distribution of positions and on-chain data, there is indeed a lack of that explosive momentum.