Everyone is betting on rate cuts being bullish? It might actually be the exact opposite.

Last night, BTC and ETH surged sharply, and the market has already priced in one thing— a 25 basis point rate cut in December, a done deal. But there’s a critical misconception: most people think that a 25bp cut is positive, but it could actually be a "bearish trap." What truly ignites the market is a 50bp cut.

Why do I say that? Just look at the data from the past eight years. Every time the rate cut is less than expected, the market performs a "rise and fall" pattern. A 25bp cut indicates the Fed is still "cautiously testing," without truly unleashing a flood of liquidity. Only a 50bp cut signals a "serious move," prompting funds to pour into risk assets with real conviction.

What’s the current situation? CME’s FedWatch tool shows an 88% probability of a 25bp cut at the next FOMC meeting. Looks stable? But the problem is—by the second half of 2025, US economic data will be a mess. Inflation data fluctuates, the employment market is unpredictable, and bond yields jump like an electrocardiogram.

What does this macro-level uncertainty mean for the crypto market?

In simple terms, every adjustment in monetary policy could be a catalyst. But is this rally the "start of a structural bull market," or just a "flash in the pan driven by expectations"? That’s the real question we need to clarify.

Next, I will analyze from several dimensions:
- The true state of the macroeconomic environment
- The transmission pathways of monetary policy changes
- On-chain capital flows and market structure
- The deeper logic behind sentiment indicators

Only by connecting these factors can we see the essence of this BTC rally and its possible future trajectory. Don’t be fooled by superficial price movements; the market never plays by the rules...