Analysis: The Federal Reserve's rate cut is favorable for short-term government bonds, but liquidity in the crypto market remains sluggish at the end of the year

According to the latest post by analyst Adam on X, the recently concluded Federal Reserve policy meeting announced a 25 basis point rate cut and simultaneously resumed short-term government bond purchases to supplement liquidity in the financial system. From a macro perspective, this easing combination undoubtedly benefits risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

However, analysts believe that the market should not interpret this move too early as the start of a new QE bull market. As it is currently the Christmas holiday and the end of the year approaching, the overall liquidity in the cryptocurrency market is significantly weak, with low activity, fundamentally limiting the momentum for launching a major bull run in the short term.

Data shows that by the end of December, the crypto options market had accumulated over 50% of open interest, with Bitcoin's maximum pain point at the $100,000 level, and Ethereum at $3,200. From a volatility perspective, implied volatility (IV) across major maturities this month has been trending downward, indicating that market expectations for volatility this month are gradually cooling.

Additionally, Skew (implied volatility skew) has remained in the negative zone this month, with put options priced significantly higher than call options, reflecting a stable overall market operation and the dominance of covered strategies, as well as more traders choosing to hedge market downside risk by purchasing puts.

In summary, the current crypto market is experiencing a macro policy tailwind, but the micro market structure and liquidity conditions do not yet support an immediate reversal of the trend. While the possibility of sudden market news triggering a quick turnaround cannot be completely ruled out, the market is more likely to continue in a state of low sentiment, poor liquidity, and a "time for patience" stance.

#美联储降息 # Market liquidity